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Ensembles of thermostatically controlled loads (TCL) provide a significant demand response reserve for the system operator to balance power grids. However, this also results in the parasitic synchronization of individual devices within the…
In this article we study the behavior of globally coupled assemblies of a large number of Integrate and Fire oscillators with excitatory pulse-like interactions. On some simple models we show that the additive effects of pulses on the state…
This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…
The onset of collective behavior in a population of globally coupled oscillators with randomly distributed frequencies is studied for phase dynamical models with arbitrary coupling; the effect of a stochastic temporal variation in the…
Spatial population synchrony has been the focus of theoretical and empirical studies for decades, in the hopes of understanding mechanisms and interactions driving ecological dynamics. In many systems, it is well-known that seasonality…
North Atlantic climate during glacial times was characterized by large-amplitude switchings, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, with an apparent tendency to recur preferably in multiples of about 1470 years. Recent work interpreted these…
We develop a formalism to analyze the behaviour of pulse--coupled identical phase oscillators with a specific attention devoted to the onset of partial synchronization. The method, which allows describing the dynamics both at the…
After decades of study, there are only two known mechanisms to induce global synchronization in a population of oscillators: deterministic coupling and common forcing. The inclusion of independent random forcing in these models typically…
We explore the potential multistability of the climate for a planet around the habitable zone. We focus on conditions reminiscent to those of the Earth system, but our investigation aims at presenting a general methodology for dealing with…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
Using a recent conceptual model of the glacial-interglacial cycles we present more evidence of Milankovitch cycles being the trigger for retreat and forming of ice sheets in the cycles. This model is based on a finite approximation of an…
Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
The study of resonances (and well-posedness) for complex systems under time-periodic loading is of broad interest in application. The work of Galdi et al.~(2014) connects asymptotic stability of solutions to an unforced Cauchy problem to…
We analyze the evolution of cosmological perturbations in the cyclic model, paying particular attention to their behavior and interplay over multiple cycles. Our key results are: (1) galaxies and large scale structure present in one cycle…
The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
The stability of Earth's climate on geological timescales is enabled by the carbon-silicate cycle that acts as a negative feedback mechanism stabilizing surface temperatures via the intake and outgas of atmospheric carbon. On Earth, this…
Though the notion of phase synchronization has been well studied in chaotic dynamical systems without delay, it has not been realized yet in chaotic time-delay systems exhibiting non-phase coherent hyperchaotic attractors. In this article…