Related papers: The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food pric…
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that…
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that…
Conversion of corn to ethanol in the US since 2005 has been a major cause of global food price increases during that time and has been shown to be ineffective in achieving US energy independence and reducing environmental impact. We make…
Previously, in underdeveloped countries, people tried to keep the prices of food products artificially low, in order to help the poor to buy their food. But it became soon clear that such system, although helpful for the city poor, was…
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices.…
Over the past decade, the stellar growth of Indian economy has been challenged by persistently high levels of inflation, particularly in food prices. The primary reason behind this stubborn food inflation is mismatch in supply-demand, as…
Social unrest may reflect a variety of factors such as poverty, unemployment, and social injustice. Despite the many possible contributing factors, the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as…
In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…
This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a…
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused enormous disruptions to not only the United States, but also the global economy. Due to the pandemic, issues in the supply chain and concerns about food shortage drove up the food prices.…
Global concern over food prices and security has been exacerbated by the impacts of armed conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine War, pandemic diseases, and climate change. Traditionally, analyzing global food prices and their associations…
Feeding a larger and wealthier global population without transgressing ecological limits is increasingly challenging, as rising food demand (especially for animal products) intensifies pressure on ecosystems, accelerates deforestation, and…
Price volatility in global food commodities is a critical signal indicating potential disruptions in the food market. Understanding forthcoming changes in these prices is essential for bolstering food security, particularly for nations at…
In recent years, there have been a lot of sharp changes in the oil price. These rapid changes cause the traditional models to fail in predicting the price behavior. The main reason for the failure of the traditional models is that they…
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative…
Yemen is considered a global terrorist base for Al-Qaeda and in recent years rampant violence is threatening social order. Here we show that the socio-economic origins of violence recently changed. Prior to 2008, violence can be attributed…
When the prices of cereal grains rise, social unrest and conflict become likely. In rural areas, the predation motives of perpetrators can explain the positive relationship between prices and conflict. Predation happens at places and in…
Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with increased national burden of chronic disease. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Forecasts show household…
In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that…
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…