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Understanding causal mechanisms is crucial for explaining and generalizing empirical phenomena. Causal mediation analysis offers statistical techniques to quantify the mediation effects. Although numerous methods have been developed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jiawei Fu

Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a powerful method to dissect the total effect of a treatment into direct and mediated effects within the potential outcome framework. This is important in many scientific applications to identify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Ziyang Jiang , Yiling Liu , Michael H. Klein , Ahmed Aloui , Yiman Ren , Keyu Li , Vahid Tarokh , David Carlson

Mediation analysis is concerned with the decomposition of the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect through a given mediator, and the remaining direct effect. This is ideally done using longitudinal measurements…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-04 Murthy N Mittinty , Stijn Vansteelandt

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Kelly Van Lancker , Frank Bretz , Oliver Dukes

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…

We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in-changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-13 Martin Huber , Mark Schelker , Anthony Strittmatter

This paper combines causal mediation analysis with double machine learning to control for observed confounders in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption in a high-dimensional setting. We consider the average indirect…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Helmut Farbmacher , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs , Henrika Langen , Martin Spindler

When analyzing data from randomized clinical trials, covariate adjustment can be used to account for chance imbalance in baseline covariates and to increase precision of the treatment effect estimate. A practical barrier to covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Chia-Rui Chang , Yue Song , Fan Li , Rui Wang

Drawing causal inference with observational studies is the central pillar of many disciplines. One sufficient condition for identifying the causal effect is that the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded conditional on the observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Peng Ding , Tyler VanderWeele , James Robins

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Yuhao Deng , Haoyu Wei , Zhongzhe Ouyang

Mediation analysis extending beyond single mediators has gained significant attention in recent years. However, related methods often assume the absence of unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding. To address this, we develop a mediation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Lan Liu , Yangbo He , Wei Li

Practitioners are interested in not only the average causal effect of the treatment on the outcome but also the underlying causal mechanism in the presence of an intermediate variable between the treatment and outcome. However, in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-04 Peng Ding , Jiannan Lu

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

Many open problems in machine learning are intrinsically related to causality, however, the use of causal analysis in machine learning is still in its early stage. Within a general reinforcement learning setting, we consider the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau , Rasmus Larsen

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for informing treatment guidelines, but results may not generalize to real-world populations. Generalizability is hindered by distributional differences in baseline covariates and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rachael K. Ross , Ivan Diaz , Amy J. Pitts , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Kara E. Rudolph

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa