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Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

We consider the problem of numerically estimating expectations of solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions in the commonly occurring small noise regime. We consider (i) standard Monte Carlo methods combined…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-08 David F. Anderson , Desmond J. Higham , Yu Sun

We present several Monte Carlo strategies for simulating discrete-time Markov chains with continuous multi-dimensional state space; we focus on stratified techniques. We first analyze the variance of the calculation of the measure of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-22 Rana Fakhereddine , Rami El Haddad , Christian Lécot

Multilevel techniques are efficient approaches for solving the large linear systems that arise from discretized partial differential equations and other problems. While geometric multigrid requires detailed knowledge about the underlying…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Tareq. U. Zaman , Scott P. MacLachlan , Luke N. Olson , Matt West

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) has become an important methodology in applied mathematics for reducing the computational cost of weak approximations. For many problems, it is well-known that strong pairwise coupling of numerical solutions in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-11 Neil K. Chada , Håkon Hoel , Ajay Jasra , Georgios E. Zouraris

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

A first-order, Monte Carlo ensemble method has been recently introduced for solving parabolic equations with random coefficients in [26], which is a natural synthesis of the ensemble-based, Monte Carlo sampling algorithm and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Yan Luo , Zhu Wang

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRF) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Sohail Reddy

Quasi-Monte Carlo algorithms are studied for designing discrete approximations of two-stage linear stochastic programs. Their integrands are piecewise linear, but neither smooth nor lie in the function spaces considered for QMC error…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-31 H. Heitsch , H. Leövey , W. Römisch

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Kiarash Shaloudegi , András György

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Cedric Aaron Beschle , Andrea Barth

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Jacob Steinhardt , Percy Liang

Biochemical reaction networks are often modelled using discrete-state, continuous-time Markov chains. System statistics of these Markov chains usually cannot be calculated analytically and therefore estimates must be generated via…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-19 Daniel Wilson , Ruth E. Baker

Monte Carlo simulations using entropic sampling to estimate the number of configurations of a given energy are a valuable alternative to traditional methods. We introduce {\it tomographic} entropic sampling, a scheme which uses multiple…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Ronald Dickman , A. G. Cunha-Netto

In this paper we focus on the development of new methods suitable for efficient and reliable coarse-graining of {\it non-equilibrium} molecular systems. In this context, we propose error estimation and controlled-fidelity model reduction…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-15 Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu

Recent developments in parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms allow us to run thousands of chains almost as quickly as a single chain, using hardware accelerators such as GPUs. While each chain still needs to forget its initial…

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