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We introduce a novel, practically relevant variation of the anomaly detection problem in multi-variate time series: intrinsic anomaly detection. It appears in diverse practical scenarios ranging from DevOps to IoT, where we want to…

These notes provide a systematic mathematical treatment of the subject of data assimilation.

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-26 K. J. H. Law , A. M. Stuart , K. C. Zygalakis

Model selection and assessment with incomplete data pose challenges in addition to the ones encountered with complete data. There are two main reasons for this. First, many models describe characteristics of the complete data, in spite of…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-08-28 Geert Verbeke , Geert Molenberghs , Caroline Beunckens

We address data assimilation for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems via the so-called \emph{model reference adaptive system}. Continuing our theoretical developments in \cite{Tram_Kaltenbacher_2021}, we deliver the first practical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Benedikt Kaltenbach , Christian Aarset , Tram Thi Ngoc Nguyen

Adaptive dynamical systems arise in a multitude of contexts, e.g., optimization, control, communications, signal processing, and machine learning. A precise characterization of their fundamental limitations is therefore of paramount…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-10-13 Maxim Raginsky

A technique is introduced for estimating unknown parameters when time series of only one variable from a multivariate nonlinear dynamical system is given. The technique employs a combination of two different control methods, a linear…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Anil Maybhate , R. E. Amritkar

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Amit N. Subrahmanya , Andrey A. Popov , Reid J. Gomillion , Adrian Sandu

In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Bart de Leeuw , Svetlana Dubinkina , Jason Frank , Andrew Steyer , Xuemin Tu , Erik Van Vleck

We consider the fundamental problem of matching a template to a signal. We do so by M-estimation, which encompasses procedures that are robust to gross errors (i.e., outliers). Using standard results from empirical process theory, we derive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Ery Arias-Castro , Lin Zheng

Distribution shifts on graphs -- the data distribution discrepancies between training and testing a graph machine learning model, are often ubiquitous and unavoidable in real-world scenarios. Such shifts may severely deteriorate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Shuhan Liu , Kaize Ding

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-07 Satya Narayan Shukla , Benjamin M. Marlin

We study different approaches to implementing sparse-in-time observations into the the Azouani-Olson-Titi data assimilation algorithm. We propose a new method which introduces a "data assimilation window" separate from the observational…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Adam Larios , Yuan Pei , Collin Victor

This work addresses inverse linear optimization where the goal is to infer the unknown cost vector of a linear program. Specifically, we consider the data-driven setting in which the available data are noisy observations of optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Rishabh Gupta , Qi Zhang

Stochastic simulators are increasingly used to expand the frontier of scientific knowledge and inform decision-making across real-world contexts. Simulator calibration, a process by which internal model inputs are tuned to match some…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-25 David O'Gara , Arindam Fadikar , Mickaël Binois , Nicholson Collier , Jonathan Ozik

The reconstruction from observations of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics such as geophysical flows is hampered by (i) the partial and noisy observations that can realistically be obtained, (ii) the need to learn from long time series of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Marc Bocquet , Julien Brajard , Alberto Carrassi , Laurent Bertino

Ensuring that analyses performed on a dataset are representative of the entire population is one of the central problems in statistics. Most classical techniques assume that the dataset is independent of the analyst's query and break down…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-25 Guy Blanc

In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Romeo Ortega , Vladislav Gromov , Emmanuel Nuño , Anton Pyrkin , Jose Guadalupe Romero

Knowledge about existence, strength, and dominant direction of causal influences is of paramount importance for understanding complex systems. With limited amounts of realistic data, however, current methods for investigating causal links…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-20 Erik Laminski , Klaus R. Pawelzik

This article addresses the challenge of adapting data-based models over time. We propose a novel two-fold modelling architecture designed to correct plant-model mismatch caused by two types of uncertainty. Out-of-domain uncertainty arises…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-17 Laura Boca de Giuli , Alessio La Bella , Riccardo Scattolini

We study the problem of designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations when only historical data is available. Prior work typically commits to a particular class of data-driven formulation and subsequently tries to establish…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-13 Amine Bennouna , Bart P. G. Van Parys