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We investigate approximating joint distributions of random processes with causal dependence tree distributions. Such distributions are particularly useful in providing parsimonious representation when there exists causal dynamics among…
We analyse a model that describes the propagation of many pathogens within and between many species. A branching process approximation is used to compute the probability of disease outbreaks. Special cases of aquatic environments with two…
The vast majority of strategies aimed at controlling contagion processes on networks considers the connectivity pattern of the system as either quenched or annealed. However, in the real world many networks are highly dynamical and evolve…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
This letter describes a direct method for computing the spatially averaged outage probability of a network with interferers located according to a point process and signals subject to fading. Unlike most common approaches, it does not…
In Kleinberg's small-world network model, strong ties are modeled as deterministic edges in the underlying base grid and weak ties are modeled as random edges connecting remote nodes. The probability of connecting a node $u$ with node $v$…
Complex contagion adoption dynamics are characterised by a node being more likely to adopt after multiple network neighbours have adopted. We show how to construct multi-type branching processes to approximate complex contagion adoption…
Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of human's physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence…
We study the spread of information on multi-type directed random graphs. In such graphs the vertices are partitioned into distinct types (communities) that have different transmission rates between themselves and with other types. We…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
Only a fast and global transformation towards decarbonization and sustainability can keep the Earth in a civilization-friendly state. As hotspots for (green) innovation and experimentation, cities could play an important role in this…
Probability estimation is one of the fundamental tasks in statistics and machine learning. However, standard methods for probability estimation on discrete objects do not handle object structure in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, we…
An understanding of the disease spreading phenomenon based on a mathematical model is extremely needed for the implication of the correct policy measures to contain the disease propagation. Here, we report a new model namely the Ising-SIR…
Threshold models of global cascades have been extensively used to model real-world collective behavior, such as the contagious spread of fads and the adoption of new technologies. A common property of those cascade models is that a…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a…
This paper exploits extended Bayesian networks for uncertainty reasoning on Petri nets, where firing of transitions is probabilistic. In particular, Bayesian networks are used as symbolic representations of probability distributions,…
We derive a universal, exact asymptotic form of the splitting probability for symmetric continuous jump processes, which quantifies the probability $ \pi_{0,\underline{x}}(x_0)$ that the process crosses $x$ before 0 starting from a given…
Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process,…
The spread of influence in networks is a topic of great importance in many application areas. For instance, one would like to maximise the coverage, limiting the budget for marketing campaign initialisation and use the potential of social…