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Related papers: Explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo

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The present work introduces an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for continuum percolation composed of randomly-oriented rectangles. By conducting extensive simulations, we report high precision percolation thresholds for a variety of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-04-06 Jiantong Li , Mikael Östling

The use of heuristics to assess the convergence and compress the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo can be sub-optimal in terms of the empirical approximations that are produced. Typically a number of the initial states are attributed to…

We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-07 Michalis K. Titsias

This paper aims at improving the convergence to equilibrium of finite ergodic Markov chains via permutations and projections. First, we prove that a specific mixture of permuted Markov chains arises naturally as a projection under the KL…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Michael C. H. Choi , Max Hird , Youjia Wang

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the Potts parameter B jointly with the unknown parameters of a Bayesian model within a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Standard MCMC methods cannot be applied to this problem because…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-05 Marcelo Pereyra , Nicolas Dobigeon , Hadj Batatia , Jean-Yves Tourneret

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for sampling equilibrium configurations in complex systems. One problem these methods often face is slow convergence over large energy barriers. In this work, we propose a novel method…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-05-29 Luigi Sbailò , Manuel Dibak , Frank Noé

The paper presents efficient approaches for evaluating convergence rate in total variation for finite and general linear Markov chains. The motivation for studying convergence rate in this metric is its usefulness in various limit theorems.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Alexander Veretennikov

We consider the problem of estimating the measure of subsets in very large networks. A prime tool for this purpose is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. This algorithm, while extremely useful in many cases, still often suffers…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Ahmad Askarian , Rupei Xu , András Faragó

The problem of optimally scaling the proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is critical to the quality of the generated samples. Much work has gone into obtaining such results for various Metropolis-Hastings (MH)…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-07 Sanket Agrawal , Dootika Vats , Krzysztof Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

We justify and discuss expressions for joint lower and upper expectations in imprecise probability trees, in terms of the sub- and supermartingales that can be associated with such trees. These imprecise probability trees can be seen as…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-19 Gert de Cooman , Jasper De Bock , Stavros Lopatatzidis

The efficiency of Monte Carlo samplers is dictated not only by energetic effects, such as large barriers, but also by entropic effects that are due to the sheer volume that is sampled. The latter effects appear in the form of an entropic…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Cristian Predescu

This review treats the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of non-reversible Markov chains in the context of event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC), a continuous-time lifted Markov chain that employs the factorized Metropolis algorithm. It…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2022-08-31 Werner Krauth

The problem of sampling according to the probability distribution minimizing a given free energy, using interacting particles unadjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo, is addressed. In this setting, three sources of error arise, related to…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Pierre Monmarché , Katharina Schuh

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , David A. Levin , Yuval Peres , Csaba Szepesvári

The random splitting Langevin Monte Carlo could mitigate the first order bias in Langevin Monte Carlo with little extra work compared other high order schemes. We develop in this work an analysis framework for the sampling error under…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Lei Li , Chen Wang , Mengchao Wang

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-24 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

We study the problem of generating a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain, given a method to simulate the chain. We give an approximation algorithm for the case of a random walk on a regular graph with n vertices that…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Itai Benjamini , Ben Morris

We study a class of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms for target measures that are absolutely continuous with respect to a large class of non-Gaussian prior measures on Banach spaces. The algorithm is shown to have a spectral gap in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-19 Bamdad Hosseini , James E Johndrow

The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Nicolas Chopin