Related papers: Estimation of limiting conditional distributions f…

We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

A workload model using the infinite source Poisson model for bursts is combined with the on--off model for within burst activity. Burst durations and on--off durations are assumed to have heavy-tailed distributions with infinite variance…

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…

A quantity of interest to characterise continuous-valued stochastic processes is the differential entropy rate. The rate of convergence of many properties of LRD processes is slower than might be expected, based on the intuition for…

In extreme value analysis, the extreme value index plays a vital role as it determines the tail heaviness of the underlying distribution and is the primary parameter required for the estimation of other extreme events. In this paper, we…

In this short paper, we study the simulation of a large system of stochastic processes subject to a common driving noise and fast mean-reverting stochastic volatilities. This model may be used to describe the firm values of a large pool of…

This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…

To consider a high-dimensional random process, we propose a notion about stochastic tensor-valued random process (TRP). In this work, we first attempt to apply a generic chaining method to derive tail bounds for all p-th moments of the…

We investigate the relaxation of long-tailed distributions under stochastic dynamics that do not support such tails. Linear relaxation is found to be a borderline case in which long tails are exponentially suppressed in time but not…

Large deviation theory and instanton calculus for stochastic systems are widely used to gain insight into the evolution and probability of rare events. At its core lies the realization that rare events are, under the right circumstances,…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to…

We investigate long and short memory in $\alpha$-stable moving averages and max-stable processes with $\alpha$-Fr\'echet marginal distributions. As these processes are heavy-tailed, we rely on the notion of long range dependence suggested…

We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…

Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…

Nonparametric regression quantiles obtained by inverting a kernel estimator of the conditional distribution of the response are long established in statistics. Attention has been, however, restricted to ordinary quantiles staying away from…

We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a…