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Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

Using the linear Gaussian latent variable model as a starting point we relax some of the constraints it imposes by deriving a nonparametric latent feature Gaussian variable model. This model introduces additional discrete latent variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Adam Farooq , Yordan P. Raykov , Luc Evers , Max A. Little

Feature selection can facilitate the learning of mixtures of discrete random variables as they arise, e.g. in crowdsourcing tasks. Intuitively, not all workers are equally reliable but, if the less reliable ones could be eliminated, then…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-28 Vincent Zhao , Steven W. Zucker

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

This paper introduces and studies a new class of nonparametric prior distributions. Random probability distribution functions are constructed via normalization of random measures driven by increasing additive processes. In particular, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Igor Prunster , Stephen G. Walker

There is increasing interest in broad application areas in defining flexible joint models for data having a variety of measurement scales, while also allowing data of complex types, such as functions, images and documents. We consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-05 Anjishnu Banerjee , Jared Murray , David B. Dunson

Penalized regression methods, such as $L_1$ regularization, are routinely used in high-dimensional applications, and there is a rich literature on optimality properties under sparsity assumptions. In the Bayesian paradigm, sparsity is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-27 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Natesh S. Pillai , David B. Dunson

In this paper we introduce objective proper prior distributions for hypothesis testing and model selection based on measures of divergence between the competing models; we call them divergence based (DB) priors. DB priors have simple forms…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-27 M. J. Bayarri , G. García-Donato

We study the rate of convergence of posterior distributions in density estimation problems for log-densities in periodic Sobolev classes characterized by a smoothness parameter p. The posterior expected density provides a nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Catia Scricciolo

Detecting associations between microbial compositions and sample characteristics is one of the most important tasks in microbiome studies. Most of the existing methods apply univariate models to single microbial species separately, with…

Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Yiwei Dong , Shaoxin Ye , Yuwen Cao , Qiyu Han , Hongteng Xu , Hanfang Yang

Inference in Bayesian statistics involves the evaluation of marginal likelihood integrals. We present algebraic algorithms for computing such integrals exactly for discrete data of small sample size. Our methods apply to both uniform priors…

Computation · Statistics 2009-02-13 Shaowei Lin , Bernd Sturmfels , Zhiqiang Xu

In Bayesian nonparametric inference, random discrete probability measures are commonly used as priors within hierarchical mixture models for density estimation and for inference on the clustering of the data. Recently, it has been shown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Stefano Favaro , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

Discrete random probability measures and the exchangeable random partitions they induce are key tools for addressing a variety of estimation and prediction problems in Bayesian inference. Indeed, many popular nonparametric priors, such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-03 P. De Blasi , S. Favaro , A. Lijoi , R. H. Mena , I. Pruenster , M. Ruggiero

We describe Bayes factors based on z, t, $\chi^2$, and F statistics when non-local moment prior distributions are used to define alternative hypotheses. The non-local alternative prior distributions are centered on standardized effects. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Saptati Datta , Rachael Shudde , Valen E. Johnson

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $f_0$ of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $\lambda_0.$ We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We develop methods for efficient amortized approximate Bayesian inference over posterior distributions of probabilistic clustering models, such as Dirichlet process mixture models. The approach is based on mapping distributed,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-27 Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-18 John A. Quinn , Masashi Sugiyama

Latent feature modeling allows capturing the latent structure responsible for generating the observed properties of a set of objects. It is often used to make predictions either for new values of interest or missing information in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Isabel Valera , Melanie F. Pradier , Maria Lomeli , Zoubin Ghahramani