Related papers: Time-Bridge Estimators of Integrated Variance
Model-based reinforcement learning is attractive for sequential decision-making because it explicitly estimates reward and transition models and then supports planning through simulated rollouts. In offline settings with hidden confounding,…
Auto encoding models have been extensively studied in recent years. They provide an efficient framework for sample generation, as well as for analysing feature learning. Furthermore, they are efficient in performing interpolations between…
Time series imputation, i.e., filling the missing values of a time recording, finds various applications in electricity, finance, and weather modelling. Previous methods have introduced generative models such as diffusion probabilistic…
A simple method is proposed to estimate the instantaneous correlations between state variables in a hybrid system from the empirical correlations between observable market quantities such as spot rate, stock price and implied volatility.…
We introduce a new variational estimator for the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process with points in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space and observed within a bounded region. The variational estimator applies in a…
Four types of explicit estimators are proposed here to estimate the loss rates of the links in a network with the tree topology and all of them are derived by the maximum likelihood principle. One of the four is developed from an estimator…
A number of popular estimators of the between-study variance, $\tau^2$, are based on the Cochran's $Q$ statistic for testing heterogeneity in meta analysis. We introduce new point and interval estimators of $\tau^2$ for log-odds-ratio.…
Three types of explicit estimators are proposed here to estimate the loss rates of the links in a network of the tree topology. All of them are derived by the maximum likelihood principle and proved to be either asymptotic unbiased or…
We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a…
This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…
The typical central limit theorems in high-frequency asymptotics for semimartingales are results on stable convergence to a mixed normal limit with an unknown conditional variance. Estimating this conditional variance usually is a hard…
For a transition between two stable states, the committor is the probability that the dynamics leads to one stable state before the other. It can be estimated from trajectory data by minimizing an expression for the transition rate that…
The exchange or geometric cluster algorithm allows us to define a variance reduced estimator of the connected two-point function in the presence of a broken Z_2-symmetry. We present first numerical tests for the improved Blume-Capel model…
The problem of integrated volatility estimation for the solution X of a stochastic differential equation with L{\'e}vy-type jumps is considered under discrete high-frequency observations in both short and long time horizon. We provide an…
We develop a general class of noise-robust estimators based on the existing estimators in the non-noisy high-frequency data literature. The microstructure noise is a parametric function of the limit order book. The noise-robust estimators…
This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
We introduce path-sampled integrated gradients (PS-IG), a framework that generalizes feature attribution by computing the expected value over baselines sampled along the linear interpolation path. We prove that PS-IG is mathematically…
The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. For a temporal multivariate point process, the negative term sums over all the possible event types at each time and also integrates over all the…
In this article we consider the volatility inference in the presence of both market microstructure noise and endogenous time. Estimators of the integrated volatility in such a setting are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are…