Related papers: The multivariate Piecing-Together approach revisit…
The normal distribution and its perturbation has left an immense mark on the statistical literature. Hence, several generalized forms were developed to model different skewness, kurtosis, and body shapes. However, it is not easy to…
The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…
The Maximum Common Subgraph is a computationally challenging problem with countless practical applications. Even if it has been long proven NP-hard, its importance still motivates searching for exact solutions. This work starts by…
We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…
Predicting the occurrence of tail events is of great importance in financial risk management. By employing the method of peak-over-threshold (POT) to identify the financial extremes, we perform a recurrence interval analysis (RIA) on these…
A new approach to building models of generalized parton distributions (GPDs) is discussed that is based on the factorized DD (double distribution) Ansatz within the single-DD formalism. The latter was not used before, because reconstructing…
This paper proposes a new theory and methodology to tackle the problem of unifying distributed analyses and inferences on shared parameters from multiple sources, into a single coherent inference. This surprisingly challenging problem…
Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension.…
For the directed edge preferential attachment network growth model studied by Bollobas et al. (2003) and Krapivsky and Redner (2001), we prove that the joint distribution of in-degree and out-degree has jointly regularly varying tails.…
This paper proposes a new method to combine several densities such that each density dominates a separate part of a joint distribution. The method is fully unsupervised, i.e. the parameters in the densities and the thresholds are…
Understanding multivariate dependencies in both the bulk and the tails of a distribution is an important problem for many applications, such as ensuring algorithms are robust to observations that are infrequent but have devastating effects.…
Complex continuous or mixed joint distributions (e.g., P(Y | z_1, z_2, ..., z_N)) generally lack closed-form solutions, often necessitating approximations such as MCMC. This paper proposes Indeterminate Probability Theory (IPT), which makes…
Perturbation theory (PT) is often used to model statistical observables capturing the translation and rotation-invariant information in cosmological density fields. PT produces higher-order corrections by integration over linear statistics…
Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
A class of numerical quadrature rules is derived, with equally-spaced nodes, and unit weights except at a few points at each end of the series, for which "corrections" (not using any further information about the integrand) are added to the…
A method is described for predicting extremes values beyond the span of historical data. The method - based on extending a curve fitted to a location- and scale-invariant variation of the double-logarithmic QQ-plot - is simple and…
In risk analysis, a global fit that appropriately captures the body and the tail of the distribution of losses is essential. Modelling the whole range of the losses using a standard distribution is usually very hard and often impossible due…
Deep probabilistic forecasting is gaining attention in numerous applications ranging from weather prognosis, through electricity consumption estimation, to autonomous vehicle trajectory prediction. However, existing approaches focus on…
A new class of copulas, termed the MGL copula class, is introduced. The new copula originates from extracting the dependence function of the multivariate generalized log-Moyal-gamma distribution whose marginals follow the univariate…