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We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

We study analytically and numerically the extreme value distribution of observables defined along the temporal evolution of a dynamical system. The convergence to the Gumbel law of observable recurrences gives information on the fractal…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Théophile Caby , Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti , Pascal Yiou

The dynamics of one dimensional iterative maps in the regime of fully developed chaos is studied in detail. Motivated by the observation of dynamical structures around the unstable fixed point we introduce the geometrical concept of a…

chao-dyn · Physics 2015-06-24 P. Schmelcher , F. K. Diakonos

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems that have a singular measure. Using the block maxima approach described in Faranda et al. [2011] we show that,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-06-14 Davide Faranda , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

The extremal index is a quantity introduced in extreme value theory to measure the presence of clusters of exceedances. In the dynamical systems framework, it provides important information about the dynamics of the underlying systems. In…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-08 Th. Caby , D. Faranda , S. Vaienti , P. Yiou

One of the main goal of extreme value analysis is to estimate the probability of rare events given a sample from an unknown distribution. The upper tail behavior of this distribution is described by the extreme value index. We present a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Laurent Gardes , Stephane Girard

We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

Using the tools of Differential Geometry, we define a new <<fast>> chaoticity indicator, able to detect dynamical instability of trajectories much more effectively, (i.e. "quickly") than the usual tools, like Lyapunov Characteristic Numbers…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Piero Cipriani , Maria Teresa Di Bari

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

We study non-stationary stochastic processes arising from sequential dynamical systems built on maps with a neutral fixed points and prove the existence of Extreme Value Laws for such processes. We use an approach developed in \cite{FFV16},…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-17 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi , Conrad Sanderson , Rob J. Hyndman

Stability is among the most important concepts in dynamical systems. Local stability is well-studied, whereas determining how "globally stable" a nonlinear system is very challenging. Over the last few decades, many different ideas have…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-10-10 Hana Krakovská , Christian Kühn , Iacopo P. Longo

Two dynamical indicators, the local dimension and the extremal index, used to quantify persistence in phase space have been developed and applied to different data across various disciplines. These are computed using the asymptotic limit of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Ignacio del Amo , George Datseris , Mark Holland

We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Romain Aimino , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

We provide formulas to compute the coefficients entering the affine scaling needed to get a non-degenerate function for the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of some kind of observable computed along the orbit of a randomly perturbed…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-07-26 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Pierre Guiraud , Sandro Vaienti

A new dynamical parameter, the f-indicator, is introduced and used in order to distinguish between regular and chaotic motion in galactic Hamiltonian systems. Two kinds of galactic potentials are used: (i) a global potential, which…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-09-11 Euaggelos E. Zotos

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

Some statistical properties of finite-time stability exponents in the standard map can be estimated analytically. The mean exponent averaged over the entire phase space behaves quite differently from all the other cumulants. Whereas the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-08-02 Steven Tomsovic , Arul Lakshminarayan

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-12-01 Davide Faranda , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

Graph based entropy, an index of the diversity of events in their distribution to parts of a co-occurrence graph, is proposed for detecting signs of structural changes in the data that are informative in explaining latent dynamics of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-05-03 Yukio Ohsawa
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