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The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modelling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 James H. McVittie , Orla A. Murphy

The core of the classical block maxima method consists of fitting an extreme value distribution to a sample of maxima over blocks extracted from an underlying series. In asymptotic theory, it is usually postulated that the block maxima are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-09 Axel Bücher , Johan Segers

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-09 Sreelekha Guggilam , S. M. Arshad Zaidi , Varun Chandola , Abani Patra

Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Emma S. Simpson , Paul J. Northrop

It has been shown that sufficiently well mixing dynamical systems with positive entropy have extreme value laws which in the limit converge to one of the three standard distributions known for i.i.d. processes, namely Gumbel, Fr\'echet and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-05 Nicolai Haydn , Michal Kupsa

We introduce the concept of geometric extremal graphical models, which are defined through the gauge function of the limit set obtained from suitably scaled random vectors in light-tailed margins. For block graphs, we prove results relating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jennifer Wadsworth

This study uses the link between extreme value laws and dynamical systems theory to show that important dynamical quantities as the correlation dimension, the entropy and the Lyapunov exponents can be obtained by fitting observables…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-05-23 Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-07 Gordon Gudendorf , Johan Segers

In extreme values theory, for a sufficiently large block size, the maxima distribution is approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions, which has…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Cira E. G. Otiniano , Bianca Sousa , Roberto Vila , Marcelo Bourguignon

In a vast area of probabilistic limit theorems for dynamical systems with chaotic behaviors always only functional form (exponential, power, etc) of the asymptotic laws and of convergence rates were studied. However, for basically all…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-06-28 Leonid A. Bunimovich , Yaofeng Su

Classification tasks usually assume that all possible classes are present during the training phase. This is restrictive if the algorithm is used over a long time and possibly encounters samples from unknown classes. The recently introduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-18 Edoardo Vignotto , Sebastian Engelke

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-30 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Chikara Nakamura

Asymptotic laws of records values have usually been investigated as limits in type. In this paper, we use functional representations of the tail of cumulative distribution functions in the extreme value domain of attraction to directly…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-13 Gane Samb Lo , Mohammad ahsanullah

This paper introduces a novel approach employing extreme value theory to analyze queue lengths within a corridor controlled by adaptive controllers. We consider the maximum queue lengths of a signalized corridor consisting of nine…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-05 Shakib Mustavee , Pushkin Kachroo , Shaurya Agarwal

The block maximum method, which is widely used in extreme value analysis, uses a generalized extreme value distribution to approximate that of the maximum of m observations. The quality of this approximation depends on the value of m and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Léo R. Belzile , Anthony C. Davison

We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism $T: \mathbb{T}^2 \to \mathbb{T}^2$ showing that if a H\"older observation $\phi$ which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point $\zeta$ is…

Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi , Conrad Sanderson , Rob J. Hyndman

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

In a wide variety of situations, anomalies in the behaviour of a complex system, whose health is monitored through the observation of a random vector X = (X1,. .. , X d) valued in R d , correspond to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-18 Maël Chiapino , Stéphan Clémençon , Vincent Feuillard , Anne Sabourin