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Surface heat flow is a key parameter for the geothermal structure, rheology, and hence the dynamics of continents. However, the coverage of heat flow measurements is still poor in many continental areas. By transforming the stable nonlinear…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-10-12 Rong Qiang Wei

Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?" by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [arXiv:1104.4002]

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-22 Martin P. Tingley

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-01 Stephen A. Walsh , Marco A. R. Ferreira , Dave Higdon , Stephanie Zick

We present a holistic Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with fully quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera)…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-23 Niamh Cahill , Andrew C. Kemp , Benjamin P. Horton , Andrew C. Parnell

We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-02-11 Jonathan F. Donges , Yong Zou , Norbert Marwan , Juergen Kurths

We introduce Bayesian hierarchical models for predicting high-dimensional tabular survey data which can be distributed from one or multiple classes of distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Poisson, Binomial, etc.). We adopt a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Saikat Nandy , Scott H. Holan , Jonathan R. Bradley , Christopher K. Wikle

Rheologically complex soft solids such as thermal greases consist of filler particles within a polymer matrix. These materials find applications in improving the conformity of solid-solid contacts and enhancing heat transfer. Complex soft…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-08-08 Pranay P. Nagrani , Akshay J. Thomas , Amy M. Marconnet , Ivan C. Christov

We apply a linear Bayesian model to seismic tomography, a high-dimensional inverse problem in geophysics. The objective is to estimate the three-dimensional structure of the earth's interior from data measured at its surface. Since this…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-11 Ran Zhang , Claudia Czado , Karin Sigloch

In climate change study, the infrared spectral signatures of climate change have recently been conceptually adopted, and widely applied to identifying and attributing atmospheric composition change. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-04 Zhen Zhang , Chae Young Lim , Tapabrata Maiti , Seiji Kato

We consider the statistical linear inverse problem of recovering the unknown initial heat state from noisy interior measurements over an inhomogeneous domain of the solution to the heat equation at a fixed time instant. We employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-18 Matteo Giordano

Software is highly contextual. While there are cross-cutting `global' lessons, individual software projects exhibit many `local' properties. This data heterogeneity makes drawing local conclusions from global data dangerous. A key research…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Neil A. Ernst

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-09 John Parslow , Noel Cressie , Edward P. Campbell , Emlyn Jones , Lawrence Murray

Temperature-dependent transport data, including diffusion coefficients and ionic conductivities, are routinely analysed by fitting empirical models such as the Arrhenius equation. These fitted models yield parameters such as the activation…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-05-25 Andrew R. McCluskey , Samuel W. Coles , Benjamin J. Morgan

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. Here we develop a workflow…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Gal Elgavish

A thermodynamically consistent phase-field model is developed to study the non-isothermal grain coalescence during the sintering process, with a potential application to the simulation in unconventional sintering techniques, e.g. spark…

Materials Science · Physics 2018-06-08 Yangyiwei Yang , Min Yi , Bai-Xiang Xu , Long-Qing Chen

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian…

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…

Borehole seismic data is obtained by receivers located in a well, with sources located on the surface or in another well. Using microlocal analysis, we study possible approximate reconstruction via linearized, filtered backprojection of an…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-02-20 Raluca Felea , Romina Gaburro , Allan Greenleaf , Clifford Nolan

This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model specifically designed to address challenges in Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) for time-dependent problems in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. The unique…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-27 Chen Wang