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We revisit the theoretical properties of Hamiltonian stochastic differential equations (SDES) for Bayesian posterior sampling, and we study the two types of errors that arise from numerical SDE simulation: the discretization error and the…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…
This research explores the reliability of deep learning, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for estimating the Hurst parameter in fractional stochastic processes. The study focuses on three types of processes: fractional…
Computable estimates for the error of finite element discretisations of parabolic problems in the $L^\infty(0,T; L^2)$ norm are developed, which exhibit constant effectivities (the ratio of the estimated error to the true error) with…
We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…
Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have…
We consider inverse problems estimating distributed parameters from indirect noisy observations through discretization of continuum models described by partial differential or integral equations. It is well understood that the errors…
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in noisy signals. Many noisy signals in real systems display trends, so that the scaling results obtained from the…
We analyze the errors arising from discrete readjustment of the hedging portfolio when hedging options in exponential Levy models, and establish the rate at which the expected squared error goes to zero when the readjustment frequency…
Improvement in time resolution sometimes introduces short-range random noises into temporal data sequences. These noises affect the results of power-spectrum analyses and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). The DFA is one of useful…
We examine two stochastic processes with random parameters, which in their basic versions (i.e., when the parameters are fixed) are Gaussian and display long range dependence and anomalous diffusion behavior, characterized by the Hurst…
The length of minimal and maximal blocks equally distant on log-log scale versus fluctuation function considerably influences bias and variance of DFA. Through a number of extensive Monte Carlo simulations and different fractional Brownian…
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) is the most popular fractal analytical technique used to evaluate the strength of long-range correlations in empirical time series in terms of the Hurst exponent, $H$. Specifically, DFA quantifies the…
A desirable property of an autocovariance estimator is to be robust to the presence of additive outliers. It is well-known that the sample autocovariance, being based on moments, does not have this property. Hence, the use of an…
We present a novel approach of discretizing variable coefficient diffusion operators in the context of meshfree generalized finite difference methods. Our ansatz uses properties of derived operators and combines the discrete Laplace…
We investigate how extreme loss of data affects the scaling behavior of long-range power-law correlated and anti-correlated signals applying the DFA method. We introduce a segmentation approach to generate surrogate signals by randomly…
For the London Stock Exchange we demonstrate that the signs of orders obey a long-memory process. The autocorrelation function decays roughly as $\tau^{-\alpha}$ with $\alpha \approx 0.6$, corresponding to a Hurst exponent $H \approx 0.7$.…
The F\"ollmer process is a Brownian motion conditioned to have a pre-specified distribution at time 1. This process can be interpreted as an "augmented" time-compressed version of the reverse stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the…
Memory effects emerge as a fundamental consequence of dimensionality reduction when low-dimensional observables are used to describe the dynamics of complex many-body systems. In the context of molecular dynamics (MD) data analysis,…
The fractional Poisson process and the Wright process (as discretization of the stable subordinator) along with their diffusion limits play eminent roles in theory and simulation of fractional diffusion processes. Here we have analyzed…