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Simulation models are widely used in practice to facilitate decision-making in a complex, dynamic and stochastic environment. But they are computationally expensive to execute and optimize, due to lack of analytical tractability. Simulation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 L. Jeff Hong , Xiaowei Zhang

Surrogate models are statistical or conceptual approximations for more complex simulation models. In this context, it is crucial to propagate the uncertainty induced by limited simulation budget and surrogate approximation error to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 Philipp Reiser , Javier Enrique Aguilar , Anneli Guthke , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Inverse problems with spatiotemporal observations are ubiquitous in scientific studies and engineering applications. In these spatiotemporal inverse problems, observed multivariate time series are used to infer parameters of physical or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Shiwei Lan , Shuyi Li , Mirjeta Pasha

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Joon-Hyuk Ko , Andrus Giraldo , Deok-Sun Lee

The data-centric construction of inexpensive surrogates for fine-grained, physical models has been at the forefront of computational physics due to its significant utility in many-query tasks such as uncertainty quantification. Recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Maximilian Rixner , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Marko Järvenpää , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Mihaela Chiappetta , Massimo Carraturo , Alexander Raßloff , Markus Kästner , Ferdinando Auricchio

The purpose of this paper is twofold. On one side, we present a general framework for Bayesian optimization and we compare it with some related fields in active learning and Bayesian numerical analysis. On the other hand, Bayesian…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Ruben Martinez-Cantin

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Christina Schenk , Jacobo Ayensa Jiménez , Ignacio Romero

Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their…

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-08 Paul Westermann , Ralph Evins

This work is concerned with the use of Gaussian surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems associated with linear partial differential equations. A particular focus is on the regime where only a small amount of training data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Tianming Bai , Aretha L. Teckentrup , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

The computational resources required to solve the full 3D inversion of time-domain electromagnetic data are immense. To overcome the time-consuming 3D simulations, we construct a surrogate model, more precisely, a data-driven statistical…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-07-10 Wouter Deleersnyder , David Dudal , Thomas Hermans

The method of surrogate data is a tool to test whether data were generated by some class of model. Tests based on the periodogram have been proposed to decide if linear systems driven by Gaussian noise could have generated a sample time…

comp-gas · Physics 2008-02-03 J. Timmer

Recent developments of advanced driver-assistance systems necessitate an increasing number of tests to validate new technologies. These tests cannot be carried out on track in a reasonable amount of time and automotive groups rely on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-16 Clara Carlier , Arnaud Franju , Matthieu Lerasle , Mathias Obrebski

A surrogate model approximates the outputs of a solver of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) with a low computational cost. In this article, we propose a method to build learning-based surrogates in the context of parameterized PDEs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Alejandro Ribés , Nawfal Benchekroun , Théo Delagnes

Surrogate modeling of eccentric binary black hole waveforms has remained challenging. The complicated morphology of these waveforms due to the eccentric orbital timescale variations makes it difficult to construct accurate and efficient…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-03 Akash Maurya , Prayush Kumar , Scott E. Field , Chandra Kant Mishra , Peter James Nee , Kaushik Paul , Harald P. Pfeiffer , Adhrit Ravichandran , Vijay Varma

Data collected by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) satellite, recording heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), exhibit a phenomenon that has caused space scientists to revise hypotheses about the physical processes, and…