Related papers: Rare event simulation for processes generated via …
To consider a high-dimensional random process, we propose a notion about stochastic tensor-valued random process (TRP). In this work, we first attempt to apply a generic chaining method to derive tail bounds for all p-th moments of the…
Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand -- because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their…
This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
We study the fundamental task of outlier-robust mean estimation for heavy-tailed distributions in the presence of sparsity. Specifically, given a small number of corrupted samples from a high-dimensional heavy-tailed distribution whose mean…
We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…
Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approx- imations of the optimal density leading to a nearly zero-variance estimator. This paper presents a new way to handle the estimation of the…
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices…
Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order…
We discuss estimating the probability that the sum of nonnegative independent and identically distributed random variables falls below a given threshold, i.e., $\mathbb{P}(\sum_{i=1}^{N}{X_i} \leq \gamma)$, via importance sampling (IS). We…
We introduce Path-ZVA: an efficient simulation technique for estimating the probability of reaching a rare goal state before a regeneration state in a (discrete-time) Markov chain. Standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques do not work well…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
We introduce a consistent estimator of the extreme value index under random truncation based on a single sample fraction of top observations from truncated and truncation data. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator…
Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…
Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) algorithms are widely used to approximate expectations with respect to complicated target probability distributions. When the target has heavy tails, existing AIS algorithms can provide inconsistent…
Rare events, and more general risk-sensitive quantities-of-interest (QoIs), are significantly impacted by uncertainty in the tail behavior of a distribution. Uncertainty in the tail can take many different forms, each of which leads to a…
In this paper, we propose a sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) method for rare event estimation. SDIS expresses a small failure probability in terms of a sequence of auxiliary failure probabilities, defined by magnifying the…
We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…
In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…
Particle splitting methods are considered for the estimation of rare events. The probability of interest is that a Markov process first enters a set $B$ before another set $A$, and it is assumed that this probability satisfies a large…