Related papers: An EM Algorithm for Continuous-time Bivariate Mark…
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that…
We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…
Hidden Markov jump processes are an attractive approach for modeling clinical disease progression data because they are explainable and capable of handling both irregularly sampled and noisy data. Most applications in this context consider…
We propose a modified version of the three-step estimation method for the latent class model with covariates, which may be used to estimate latent Markov models for longitudinal data. The three-step estimation approach we propose is based…
This paper provides a mixture modeling framework using the bivariate generalized exponential distribution. We study different properties of this mixture distribution. Hierarchical EM algorithm is developed for finding the estimates of the…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
We propose a novel, tractable latent state inference scheme for Markov jump processes, for which exact inference is often intractable. Our approach is based on an entropic matching framework that can be embedded into the well-known…
Markov automata combine non-determinism, probabilistic branching, and exponentially distributed delays. This compositional variant of continuous-time Markov decision processes is used in reliability engineering, performance evaluation and…
Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we…
We propose two algorithms for simulating continuous time Markov chains in the presence of metastability. We show that the algorithms correctly estimate, under the ergodicity assumption, stationary averages of the process. Both algorithms,…
Data-driven models for nonlinear dynamical systems based on approximating the underlying Koopman operator or generator have proven to be successful tools for forecasting, feature learning, state estimation, and control. It has become well…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…
The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
Hidden Markov models provide a natural statistical framework for the detection of the copy number variations (CNV) in genomics. In this paper, we consider a Hidden Markov Model involving several correlated hidden processes at the same time.…
The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of…
The EM algorithm is one of the most popular algorithm for inference in latent data models. The original formulation of the EM algorithm does not scale to large data set, because the whole data set is required at each iteration of the…
To deal with very large datasets a mini-batch version of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for general latent variable models is proposed. For exponential models the algorithm is shown…
We propose a two step strategy for estimating one-dimensional dynamical parameters of a quantum Markov chain, which involves quantum post-processing the output using a coherent quantum absorber and a "pattern counting'' estimator computed…