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Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of…
Regression adjustments are often made to experimental data. Since randomization does not justify the models, bias is likely; nor are the usual variance calculations to be trusted. Here, we evaluate regression adjustments using Neyman's…
Estimating the free energy in molecular simulation requires, implicitly or explicitly, counting how many times the system is observed in a finite region. If the simulation is biased by an external potential, the weight of the configurations…
We propose a new scientific application of unsupervised learning techniques to boost our ability to search for new phenomena in data, by detecting discrepancies between two datasets. These could be, for example, a simulated standard-model…
The goal of this presentation is to build an efficient non-parametric Bayes classifier in the presence of large numbers of predictors. When analyzing such data, parametric models are often too inflexible while non-parametric procedures tend…
This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…
Categorical variables are of uttermost importance in biomedical research. When two of them are considered, it is often the case that one wants to test whether or not they are statistically dependent. We show weaknesses of classical methods…
We propose a way of transforming the problem of conditional density estimation into a single nonparametric regression task via the introduction of auxiliary samples. This allows leveraging regression methods that work well in high…
This paper presents a brand new nonparametric density estimation strategy named the best-scored random forest density estimation whose effectiveness is supported by both solid theoretical analysis and significant experimental performance.…
In transformation regression models the response is transformed before fitting a regression model to covariates and transformed response. We assume such a model where the errors are independent from the covariates and the regression…
Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…
Conditional density estimation generalizes regression by modeling a full density f(yjx) rather than only the expected value E(yjx). This is important for many tasks, including handling multi-modality and generating prediction intervals.…
Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…
Modern randomization methods in clinical trials are invariably adaptive, meaning that the assignment of the next subject to a treatment group uses the accumulated information in the trial. Some of the recent adaptive randomization methods…
In the context of regressing a response $Y$ on a predictor $X$, we consider estimating the local modes of the distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$ when $X$ is prone to measurement error. We propose two nonparametric estimation methods, with one…
We present alphaPDE, a new multivariate analysis technique for parameter estimation. The method is based on a direct construction of joint probability densities of known variables and the parameters to be estimated. We show how posterior…
Fully nonparametric methods for regression from functional data have poor accuracy from a statistical viewpoint, reflecting the fact that their convergence rates are slower than nonparametric rates for the estimation of high-dimensional…
This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…
Graphical models have long been studied in statistics as a tool for inferring conditional independence relationships among a large set of random variables. The most existing works in graphical modeling focus on the cases that the data are…
Finite mixture models are useful in applied econometrics. They can be used to model unobserved heterogeneity, which plays major roles in labor economics, industrial organization and other fields. Mixtures are also convenient in dealing with…