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Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

In this paper, we investigate a partially observable zero sum games where the state process is a discrete time Markov chain. We consider a general utility function in the optimization criterion. We show the existence of value for both…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-16 Arnab Bhabak , Subhamay saha

POMDPs are standard models for probabilistic planning problems, where an agent interacts with an uncertain environment. We study the problem of almost-sure reachability, where given a set of target states, the question is to decide whether…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-11-30 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Martin Chmelik , Jessica Davies

This paper examines games with strategic complements or substitutes and incomplete information, where players are uncertain about the opponents' parameters. We assume that the players' beliefs about the opponent's parameters are selected…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-01-28 Joep van Sloun

The partial monitoring (PM) framework provides a theoretical formulation of sequential learning problems with incomplete feedback. On each round, a learning agent plays an action while the environment simultaneously chooses an outcome. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Maxime Heuillet , Ola Ahmad , Audrey Durand

We study an evolutionary game of chance in which the probabilities for different outcomes (e.g., heads or tails) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. The game is perhaps the simplest possible probabilistic game in which…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-08-29 Dmitriy Cherkashin , J. Doyne Farmer , Seth Lloyd

Projection games constitute an important class of nonlocal games where, for any answer from the first player, there is a unique correct answer for the second player. This class of games captures nonlocal games arising from constraint…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-17 Eric Culf

In games with a large number of players where players may have overlapping objectives, the analysis of stable outcomes typically depends on player types. A special case is when a large part of the player population consists of imitation…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2010-06-18 Soumya Paul , R. Ramanujam

We study the performance of Fictitious Play, when used as a heuristic for finding an approximate Nash equilibrium of a 2-player game. We exhibit a class of 2-player games having payoffs in the range [0,1] that show that Fictitious Play…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2011-03-22 Paul W. Goldberg , Rahul Savani , Troels Bjerre Sorensen , Carmine Ventre

In this paper we introduce polytopal stochastic games, an extension of two-player, zero-sum, turn-based stochastic games, in which we may have uncertainty over the transition probabilities. In these games the uncertainty over the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Pablo F. Castro , Pedro D'Argenio

In this paper we investigate lossy channel games under incomplete information, where two players operate on a finite set of unbounded FIFO channels and one player, representing a system component under consideration operates under…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2013-03-05 Rayna Dimitrova , Bernd Finkbeiner

We investigate uniformity properties of strategies. These properties involve sets of plays in order to express useful constraints on strategies that are not \mu-calculus definable. Typically, we can state that a strategy is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-03-05 Bastien Maubert , Sophie Pinchinat , Laura Bozzelli

This work contains the mathematical exploration of a few prototypical games in which central concepts from statistics and probability theory naturally emerge. The first two kinds of games are termed Fisher and Bayesian games, which are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Jozsef Konczer

A strategy profile in a multi-player game is a Nash equilibrium if no player can unilaterally deviate to achieve a strictly better payoff. A profile is an $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium if no player can gain more than $\epsilon$ by…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Ali Asadi , Léonard Brice , Krishnendu Chatterjee , K. S. Thejaswini

We study two-player games of infinite duration that are played on finite or infinite game graphs. A winning strategy for such a game is positional if it only depends on the current position, and not on the history of the play. A game is…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2012-08-29 Erich Graedel , Igor Walukiewicz

The paper studies one-shot two-player games with non-Bayesian uncertainty. The players have an attitude that ranges from optimism to pessimism in the face of uncertainty. Given the attitudes, each player forms a belief about the set of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Jiwoong Lee , Jean Walrand

Simple stochastic games are two-player zero-sum stochastic games with turn-based moves, perfect information, and reachability winning conditions. We present two new algorithms computing the values of simple stochastic games. Both of them…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Hugo Gimbert , Florian Horn

Quantitative games are two-player zero-sum games played on directed weighted graphs. Total-payoff games (that can be seen as a refinement of the well-studied mean-payoff games) are the variant where the payoff of a play is computed as the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-07-15 Thomas Brihaye , Gilles Geeraerts , Axel Haddad , Benjamin Monmege

We consider concurrent games played on graphs. At every round of the game, each player simultaneously and independently selects a move; the moves jointly determine the transition to a successor state. Two basic objectives are the safety…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2008-12-18 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Luca de Alfaro , Thomas A. Henzinger

Progressively intricate cyber infiltration mechanisms have made conventional means of defense, such as firewalls and malware detectors, incompetent. These sophisticated infiltration mechanisms can study the defender's behavior, identify…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-10-02 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu