Related papers: Quantifying mortality risk in small defined-benefi…
An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…
In a collectivised pension fund, investors agree that any money remaining in the fund when they die can be shared among the survivors. We compute analytically the optimal investment-consumption strategy for a fund of $n$ identical investors…
Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all the policies at the same time. We introduce here a…
Dependence among multiple lifetimes is a key factor for pricing and evaluating the risk of joint life insurance products. The dependence structure can be exposed to model uncertainty when available data and information are limited. We…
Penalized estimation principle is fundamental to high-dimensional problems. In the literature, it has been extensively and successfully applied to various models with only structural parameters. As a contrast, in this paper, we apply this…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
We study the variability of a risk from the statistical viewpoint of multimodality of the conditional loss distribution given that the aggregate loss equals an exogenously provided capital. This conditional distribution serves as a building…
Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this…
Designing proper treatment plans to manage diabetes requires health practitioners to pay heed to the individuals remaining life along with the comorbidities affecting them. Older adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) are prone to…
Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of…
In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…
This paper proposes a market consistent valuation framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit, death benefit and surrender benefit features. The setup is based on a hybrid model for the financial market and…
Risk measures are commonly used to capture the risk preferences of decision-makers (DMs). The decisions of DMs can be nudged or manipulated when their risk preferences are influenced by factors such as the availability of information about…
The economic equities maximization criterion (MFPE) leads to the choice of financial portfolio, which maximizes the ratio of the expected value of the insurance company on the capital. This criterion is presented in the framework of a…
The central idea of the paper is to present a general simple patchwork construction principle for multivariate copulas that create unfavourable VaR (i.e. Value at Risk) scenarios while maintaining given marginal distributions. This is of…
We investigate models of the life annuity insurance when the company invests its reserve into a risky asset with price following a geometric Brownian motion. Our main result is an exact asymptotic of the ruin probabilities for the case of…
Dementia currently affects about 50 million people worldwide, and this number is rising. Since there is still no cure, the primary focus remains on preventing modifiable risk factors such as cardiovascular factors. It is now recognized that…
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…
The paper discusses capital allocation using the Euler formula and focuses on the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). Some new results connected to this capital allocation is known. Two examples illustrate that…