Related papers: HYPE with stochastic events
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
Generative models often use human evaluations to measure the perceived quality of their outputs. Automated metrics are noisy indirect proxies, because they rely on heuristics or pretrained embeddings. However, up until now, direct human…
This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be represented by…
In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…
Automata expressiveness is an essential feature in understanding which of the formalisms available should be chosen for modelling a particular problem. Probabilistic and stochastic automata are suitable for modelling systems exhibiting…
We extend the definition of a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) to overcome limitations that make it difficult to use for on-line control. Since guard sets do not specify the exact event causing a transition, we introduce a clock structure…
The discrete class algorithm presented in this paper is an efficient simulation tool for stochastic processes governed by a reasonably small set of transition rates. The algorithm is presented, its performance compared to prevailing methods…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
To determine an optimal plan for complex tasks, one often deals with dynamic and hierarchical relationships between several entities. Traditionally, such problems are tackled with optimal control, which relies on the optimization of cost…
Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…
Effective control and prediction of dynamical systems often require appropriate handling of continuous-time and discrete, event-triggered processes. Stochastic hybrid systems (SHSs), common across engineering domains, provide a formalism…
In recent years statistical physicists have developed {\it discrete} "particle-hopping" models of vehicular traffic, usually formulated in terms of {\it cellular automata}, which are similar to the microscopic models of interacting charged…
A stochastic hybrid system, also known as a switching diffusion, is a continuous-time Markov process with state space consisting of discrete and continuous parts. We consider parametric estimation of theQmatrix for the discrete state…
In this paper, a simulation-based method for the analysis and design of abstracted models for a stochastic hybrid system is proposed. The accuracy of a model is evaluated in terms of its capability to reproduce the system output for all the…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…
The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
Complex systems may often be characterized by their hierarchical dynamics. In this paper do we present a method and an operational algorithm that automatically infer this property in a broad range of systems; discrete stochastic processes.…