Related papers: On Daryl Bem's Feeling the Future Paper
Recent formulation of the Zaller model of mass opinion is generalized to include the interaction between agents. The mechanism of interaction is close to the bounded confidence model. The outcome of the simulation is the probability…
Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…
Theories of consciousness depend on data, and it needs to be appropriate data, without overwhelming confounding factors. The reports of Minimal Phenomenal Experience (MPE) in [Metzinger 2024] relate to consciousness in a state purer than…
Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…
Turing's estimator allows one to estimate the probabilities of outcomes that either do not appear or only rarely appear in a given random sample. We perform a simulation study to understand the finite sample performance of several related…
Social media platforms are thriving nowadays, so a huge volume of data is produced. As it includes brief and clear statements, millions of people post their thoughts on microblogging sites every day. This paper represents and analyze the…
Different theories posit different sources for feelings of well-being and happiness. Appraisal theory grounds our emotional responses in our goals and desires and their fulfillment, or lack of fulfillment. Self Determination theory posits…
Without attempting to summarize the vast field of statistical mechanics, we briefly mention some of the progress that was made in areas which have enjoyed Barry Simon's interests. In particular, we focus on rigorous non-perturbative results…
Given the high advances of large language models (LLM) it is of vital importance to study their behaviors and apply their utility in all kinds of scientific fields. Psychology has been, in recent years, poorly approached using novel…
Citations are commonly held to represent scientific impact. To date, however, there is no empirical evidence in support of this postulate that is central to research assessment exercises and Science of Science studies. Here, we report on…
This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with an opinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception can influence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of the disease.…
Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how…
In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so…
Background. In recent years, cyber security security user studies have been appraised in meta-research, mostly focusing on the completeness of their statistical inferences and the fidelity of their statistical reporting. However, estimates…
Sentiment analysis predicts the presence of positive or negative emotions in a text document. In this paper we consider higher dimensional extensions of the sentiment concept, which represent a richer set of human emotions. Our approach…
Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…
The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that…
This document presents the statistical methods used to process low-level measurements in the presence of noise. These methods can be classical or Bayesian. The question is placed in the general framework of the problem of nuisance…
Reliability is probability of success in a success-failure experiment. Confidence in reliability estimate improves with increasing number of samples. Assurance sets confidence level same as reliability to create one number for easier…
Election results are determined by numerous social factors that affect the formation of opinion of the voters, including the network of interactions between them and the dynamics of opinion influence. In this work we study the result of…