Related papers: On Daryl Bem's Feeling the Future Paper
We show that publishing results using the statistical significance filter---publishing only when the p-value is less than 0.05---leads to a vicious cycle of overoptimistic expectation of the replicability of results. First, we show…
How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…
Starting with the idea that sentiment analysis models should be able to predict not only positive or negative but also other psychological states of a person, we implement a sentiment analysis model to investigate the relationship between…
Every scientific endeavour consists of (at least) two components: A hypothesis on the one hand and data on the other. There is always a more or less abstract level - some theory, a set of concepts, certain relations of ideas - and a…
We study user sentiment (reported via optional surveys) as a metric for fully randomized A/B tests. Both user-level covariates and treatment assignment can impact response propensity. We propose a set of consistent estimators for the…
The issue of confidence factors in Knowledge Based Systems has become increasingly important and Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory has become increasingly popular as a basis for these factors. This paper discusses the need for an empirical…
Social media (SM) data provides a vast record of humanity's everyday thoughts, feelings, and actions at a resolution previously unimaginable. Because user behavior on SM is a reflection of events in the real world, researchers have realized…
The Poisson probability distribution is frequently encountered in physical science measurements. In spite of the simplicity and familiarity of this distribution, there is considerable confusion among physicists concerning the description of…
With limited resources, scientific inquiries must be prioritized for further study, funding, and translation based on their practical significance: whether the effect size is large enough to be meaningful in the real world. Doing so must…
Survey experiments are widely used to identify causal effects in political science and the social sciences. Yet researchers are typically interested in more than the internal validity of an experimentally induced contrast. They also want to…
The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…
Which type of statistical uncertainty -- statistical (in)significance with a p-value, or a Bayesian probability -- enables people to see the continuous nature of uncertainty more clearly in a policymaking context? An original survey…
Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's effects on a relevant set of patients and controls. Sometimes,…
This paper introduces to readers the new concept and methodology of confidence distribution and the modern-day distributional inference in statistics. This discussion should be of interest to people who would like to go into the depth of…
The Open Science Collaboration recently reported that 36% of published findings from psychological studies were reproducible by independent researchers. We can use this information together with Bayes theorem to estimate the statistical…
Suppose you are told that taking a statin will reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke by 3% in the next ten years, or that women have better emotional intelligence than men. You may wonder how accurate the 3% is, or how confident we…
The extensive dissemination of false information in social networks affects netizens social lives, morals, and behaviours. When a neighbour expresses strong emotions (e.g., fear, anger, excitement) based on a false statement, these emotions…
Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are posited by multiple theories in the social sciences. Other processes can also produce behaviors that are correlated in networks and groups,…
When a scientist performs an experiment they normally acquire a set of measurements and are expected to demonstrate that their results are "statistically significant" thus confirming whatever hypothesis they are testing. The main method for…
In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…