Related papers: Estimating failure probabilities
This paper deals with optimally-robust parameter estimation in generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). These arise naturally in many situations where one is interested in the behavior of extreme events as motivated by the…
In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…
A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…
In many applied fields it is desired to make predictions with the aim of assessing the plausibility of more severe events than those already recorded to safeguard against calamities that have not yet occurred. This problem can be analysed…
The Solvency II Directive and Solvency Assessment and Management (the South African equivalent) give a Solvency Capital Requirement which is based on a 99.5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation. This calculation involves aggregating individual…
Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…
In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process.…
Many random phenomena, including life-testing and environmental data, show positive values and excess zeros, which pose modeling challenges. In life testing, immediate failures result in zero lifetimes, often due to defects or poor quality,…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed…
In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…
We consider the problem of low probability estimation: given a machine learning model and a formally-specified input distribution, how can we estimate the probability of a binary property of the model's output, even when that probability is…
Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t) $ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional…
Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution --…
Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…
In extreme value analysis, tail behavior of a heavy-tailed data distribution is modeled by a Pareto-type distribution in which the so-called extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behavior. For heavy-tailed data obtained from multiple…
Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…
We obtain error terms on the rate of convergence to Extreme Value Laws for a general class of weakly dependent stochastic processes. The dependence of the error terms on the `time' and `length' scales is very explicit. Specialising to data…