Related papers: On optimality of kernels for approximate Bayesian …
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be viewed as an analytic approximation of an intractable likelihood coupled with an elementary simulation step. Such a view, combined with a suitable instrumental prior distribution permits…
Model selection in the presence of intractable likelihoods remains a central challenge in Bayesian inference. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a flexible likelihood-free framework, but its use for model choice is known to be…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for certain classes of time series models. In particular, we focus upon scenarios where the likelihoods of the observations and parameter are intractable, by which…
Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…
Given the complexity of modern cosmological parameter inference where we are faced with non-Gaussian data and noise, correlated systematics and multi-probe correlated data sets, the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method is a…
The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…
This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…
When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…
We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…
The generation of decision-theoretic Bayesian optimal designs is complicated by the significant computational challenge of minimising an analytically intractable expected loss function over a, potentially, high-dimensional design space. A…
Monte Carlo methods are widely used for approximating complicated, multidimensional integrals for Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) is an important class of Monte Carlo methods, which utilizes a population of proposals to…
This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…
We propose a novel approach to approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) that seeks to cater for possible misspecification of the assumed model. This new approach can be equally applied to rejection-based ABC and to popular regression…
This work proposes an adaptive sequential Monte Carlo sampling algorithm to solve Bayesian inverse problems in scenarios where likelihood evaluations are costly but can be approximated using a surrogate model built from previous evaluations…
The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio $s/d$, where $s$ and $d$ encode the…
Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has gained popularity as a method for conducting inference and forecasting in complex models, most notably those which are intractable in some sense. In this paper we use ABC to produce probabilistic…
ABC algorithms involve a large number of simulations from the model of interest, which can be very computationally costly. This paper summarises the lazy ABC algorithm of Prangle (2015), which reduces the computational demand by abandoning…
Kernel herding belongs to a family of deterministic quadratures that seek to minimize the worst-case integration error over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). These quadrature rules come with strong experimental evidence that this…