Related papers: Application of Bayesian model inadequacy criterion…
Stellar radial velocity (RV) measurements have proven to be a very successful method for detecting extrasolar planets. Analysing RV data to determine the parameters of the extrasolar planets is a significant statistical challenge owing to…
The Gliese 581 planetary system has received attention because it has been proposed to host a low-mass planet in its habitable zone. We re-analyse the radial velocity measurements reported to contain six planetary signals to see whether…
When searching for exoplanets, one wants to count how many planets orbit a given star, and to determine what their characteristics are. If the estimated planet characteristics are too far from those of a planet truly present, this should be…
By detecting light from extrasolar planets,we can measure their compositions and bulk physical properties. The technologies used to make these measurements are still in their infancy, and a lack of self-consistency suggests that previous…
We obtain full information on the orbital parameters by combining radial velocity and astrometric measurements by means of Bayesian inference. We sample the parameter probability densities of orbital model parameters with a Markov chain…
Moment-based estimation filters have successfully aided spacecraft navigation for decades. However, future missions plan to venture into deep-space regimes with significant round-trip light-time telecommunication delays, operate in…
There is a degeneracy in the radial velocity exoplanet signal between a single planet on an eccentric orbit and a two-planet system with a period ratio of 2:1. This degeneracy could lead to misunderstandings of the dynamical histories of…
The fully marginalized likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is of great importance in probabilistic data analysis, because it is involved in calculating the posterior probability of a model or re-weighting a mixture of models conditioned on…
Eccentricity is a parameter of particular interest as it is an informative indicator of the past of planetary systems. It is however not always clear whether the eccentricity fitted on radial velocity data is real or if it is an artefact of…
Radial velocity (RV) planet searches are increasingly finding planets with small velocity amplitudes, with long orbital periods, or in multiple planet systems. Bayesian inference has the potential to improve the interpretation of existing…
Inferring the number of planets $N$ in an exoplanetary system from radial velocity (RV) data is a challenging task. Recently, it has become clear that RV data can contain periodic signals due to stellar activity, which can be difficult to…
Rigorously quantifying the information in high contrast imaging data is important for informing follow-up strategies to confirm the substellar nature of a point source, constraining theoretical models of planet-disk interactions, and…
The statistical validation of transiting exoplanets proved to be an efficient technique to secure the nature of small exoplanet signals which cannot be established by purely spectroscopic means. However, the spectroscopic diagnoses are…
Gaia's astrometric solution aims to determine at least five parameters for each star, together with appropriate estimates of their uncertainties and correlations. This requires at least five distinct observations per star. In the early data…
Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…
A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality…
The study of multiple extrasolar planetary systems has the opportunity to obtain constraints for the planetary masses and orbital inclinations via the detection of mutual perturbations. The analysis of precise radial velocity measurements…
Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…
Bayesian data analysis techniques, together with suitable statistical models, can be used to obtain much more information from noisy data than the traditional frequentist methods. For instance, when searching for periodic signals in noisy…
We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by…