Related papers: An approximate Bayesian marginal likelihood approa…

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now a well established method for performing approximate Bayesian parameter estimation for simulation-based models that do not possess a tractable likelihood function. BSL approximates an intractable…

More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable…

We propose a novel use of a recent new computational tool for Bayesian inference, namely the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology. ABC is a way to handle models for which the likelihood function may be intractable or even…

The marginal likelihood of a model is a key quantity for assessing the evidence provided by the data in support of a model. The marginal likelihood is the normalizing constant for the posterior density, obtained by integrating the product…

Financial studies require volatility based models which provides useful insights on risks related to investments. Stochastic volatility models are one of the most popular approaches to model volatility in such studies. The asset returns…

Bayesian models that mix multiple Dirichlet prior parameters, called Multi-Dirichlet priors (MD) in this paper, are gaining popularity. Inferring mixing weights and parameters of mixed prior distributions seems tricky, as sums over…

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational…

This article extends the literature on copulas with discrete or continuous marginals to the case where some of the marginals are a mixture of discrete and continuous components. We do so by carefully defining the likelihood as the density…

Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Our article deals with Bayesian inference for a general state space model with the simulated likelihood computed by the particle filter. We show empirically that the partially or fully adapted particle filters can be much more efficient…

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…