Related papers: On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk
Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
This paper develops inference methods for ratios of deterministic trend slopes in systems of pairs of time series. Hypotheses based on linear cross-equation restrictions are considered with particular interest in tests that trend ratios are…
1. Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. 2. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
Concurrent floods and concurrent droughts in nearby catchments pose challenges to risk assessment and water management. Climate change is affecting extremely high and low discharge, but the complex interplay between changes in individual…
Heavy rainfall distributional modeling is essential in any impact studies linked to the water cycle, e.g.\ flood risks. Still, statistical analyses that both take into account the temporal and multivariate nature of extreme rainfall are…
Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…
General thermodynamic theory of metastable states is used in this short note to try to understand better atmospheric instabilities. It is shown that not only cooling of a cloud can lead to rain, but heating also, especially when there are…
Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
Statistical analysis of extremes can be used to predict the probability of future extreme events, such as large rainfalls or devastating windstorms. The quality of these forecasts can be measured through scoring rules. Locally scale…
We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…
Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…
According to a recent investigation, an estimated 33-50% of the world's coral reefs have undergone degradation, believed to be as a result of climate change. A strong driver of climate change and the subsequent environmental impact are…