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For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

Computation · Statistics 2011-07-04 Chris Barnes , Sarah Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf , Thomas Thorne

A representation of the cause-effect mechanism is needed to enable artificial intelligence to represent how the world works. Bayesian Networks (BNs) have proven to be an effective and versatile tool for this task. BNs require constructing a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Joverlyn Gaudillo , Nicole Astrologo , Fabio Stella , Enzo Acerbi , Francesco Canonaco

As data sets continue to grow in size and complexity, effective and efficient techniques are needed to target important features in the variable space. Many of the variable selection techniques that are commonly used alongside clustering…

Computation · Statistics 2013-03-22 Jeffrey L. Andrews , Paul D. McNicholas

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-04 Marco Scutari

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Henry Chai , Jean-Francois Ton , Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson

Modern datasets commonly feature both substantial missingness and many variables of mixed data types, which present significant challenges for estimation and inference. Complete case analysis, which proceeds using only the observations with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-10 Joseph Feldman , Daniel R. Kowal

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 J. Lee , Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

Subset selection is a valuable tool for interpretable learning, scientific discovery, and data compression. However, classical subset selection is often avoided due to selection instability, lack of regularization, and difficulties with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-17 Daniel R. Kowal

Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Andrew R. Liddle , Pia Mukherjee , David Parkinson

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-21 Mario Beraha , Riccardo Corradin

Non-exhaustive learning (NEL) is an emerging machine-learning paradigm designed to confront the challenge of non-stationary environments characterized by anon-exhaustive training sets lacking full information about the available…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-27 Yicheng Cheng , Bartek Rajwa , Murat Dundar

We propose an empirical likelihood ratio test for nonparametric model selection, where the competing models may be nested, nonnested, overlapping, misspecified, or correctly specified. It compares the squared prediction errors of models…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 Jiancheng Jiang , Jiang Xuejun , Wang Haofeng

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-02 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-27 Dimitris Korobilis , Davide Pettenuzzo

One of the focal points of the modern literature on Bayesian nonparametrics has been the problem of clustering, or partitioning, where each data point is modeled as being associated with one and only one of some collection of groups called…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-02 Tamara Broderick , Michael I. Jordan , Jim Pitman

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Peter W. Marcy , Curtis B. Storlie

In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-20 F. Feroz , J. Skilling

The paper presents a novel approach for unsupervised techniques in the field of clustering. A new method is proposed to enhance existing literature models using the proper Bayesian bootstrap to improve results in terms of robustness and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-16 Federico Maria Quetti , Silvia Figini , Elena ballante

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-26 Federico Bassetti , Roberto Casarin , Francesco Ravazzolo