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A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…
Bayesian inference involves the specification of a statistical model by a statistician or practitioner, with careful thought about what each parameter represents. This results in particularly interpretable models which can be used to…
We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of observing the expected number of successes at each stage of a sequence of nested Bernoulli trials. Our motivation is the attempt to give a genuinely frequentist interpretation to the…
Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…
Monte Carlo is a simple and flexible tool that is widely used in computational finance. In this context, it is common for the quantity of interest to be the expected value of a random variable defined via a stochastic differential equation.…
Probabilistic programs are a powerful and convenient approach to formalise distributions over system executions. A classical verification problem for probabilistic programs is temporal inference: to compute the likelihood that the execution…
Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…
We look at Monte Carlo numerical integration from a stochastic geometry point of view. While crude Monte Carlo estimators relate to linear statistics of a homogeneous Poisson point process (PPP), linear statistics of more regularly spread…
For enumerative problems, i.e. computable functions f from N to Z, we define the notion of an effective (or closed) formula. It is an algorithm computing f(n) in the number of steps that is polynomial in the combined size of the input n and…
We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K<N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate of…
This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte…
This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…
We are concerned with three types of uncertainties: probabilistic, possibilitistic and interval. By using possibility and necessity measures as an Interval Valued Probability Measure (IVPM), we present IVPM's interval expected values whose…
A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced that can determine the correct nodal structure of the wave function of a few-fermion system and its ground-state energy without an uncontrolled bias. This is achieved by confining signed…
A novel approach towards construction of absolutely continuous distributions over the unit interval is proposed. Considering two absolutely continuous random variables with positive support, this method conditions on their convolution to…
We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian…
The standard Monte Carlo estimator $\widehat{I}_N^{\mathrm{MC}}$ of $\int fd\omega$ relies on independent samples from $\omega$ and has variance of order $1/N$. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive…
We study the existence of algorithms generating almost surely nonnegative unbiased estimators. We show that given a nonconstant real-valued function $f$ and a sequence of unbiased estimators of $\lambda\in\mathbb{R}$, there is no algorithm…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
The probability density function of a probability distribution is a fundamental concept in probability theory and a key ingredient in various widely used machine learning methods. However, the necessary framework for compiling probabilistic…