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We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

We study the accuracy of forecasts in the diffusion index forecast model with possibly weak loadings. The default option to construct forecasts is to estimate the factors through principal component analysis (PCA) on the available predictor…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-12 Tom Boot , Bart Keijsers

We want to reconstruct a signal based on inhomogeneous data (the amount of data can vary strongly), using the model of regression with a random design. Our aim is to understand the consequences of inhomogeneity on the accuracy of estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Stéphane Gaiffas

In this paper we analyze a budgeted learning setting, in which the learner can only choose and observe a small subset of the attributes of each training example. We develop efficient algorithms for ridge and lasso linear regression, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-24 Doron Kukliansky , Ohad Shamir

Classical randomized experiments, equipped with randomization-based inference, provide assumption-free inference for treatment effects. They have been the gold standard for drawing causal inference and provide excellent internal validity.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-22 Zihao Yang , Tianyi Qu , Xinran Li

We propose LOCO, an algorithm for large-scale ridge regression which distributes the features across workers on a cluster. Important dependencies between variables are preserved using structured random projections which are cheap to compute…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Christina Heinze , Brian McWilliams , Nicolai Meinshausen , Gabriel Krummenacher

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

When estimating causal effects from observational studies, researchers often need to adjust for many covariates to deconfound the non-causal relationship between exposure and outcome, among which many covariates are discrete. The behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Zhenghao Zeng , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Yanjun Han , Edward H. Kennedy

This paper deals with the consistency of the least squares estimator of a convex regression function when the predictor is multidimensional. We characterize and discuss the computation of such an estimator via the solution of certain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Emilio Seijo , Bodhisattva Sen

We consider the problem of designing experiments for the comparison of two regression curves describing the relation between a predictor and a response in two groups, where the data between and within the group may be dependent. In order to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-15 Kirsten Schorning , Holger Dette

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas

Concerning bivariate least squares linear regression, the classical approach pursued for functional models in earlier attempts is reviewed using a new formalism in terms of deviation (matrix) traces. Within the framework of classical error…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-03-08 R. Caimmi

There are a variety of settings where vague prior information may be available on the importance of predictors in high-dimensional regression settings. Examples include ordering on the variables offered by their empirical variances (which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-20 Benjamin G. Stokell , Rajen D. Shah

Estimation and prediction problems for dense signals are often framed in terms of minimax problems over highly symmetric parameter spaces. In this paper, we study minimax problems over l2-balls for high-dimensional linear models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-22 Lee Dicker

We prove a new and general concentration inequality for the excess risk in least-squares regression with random design and heteroscedastic noise. No specific structure is required on the model, except the existence of a suitable function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-12 Adrien Saumard

This paper studies nonparametric regression with long memory (LRD) errors and predictors. First, we formulate general conditions which guarantee the standard rate of convergence for a nonparametric kernel estimator. Second, we calculate the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-25 Rafal Kulik , Pawel Lorek

We study identification and estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with a multivalued treatment variable. We also allow for the inclusion of covariates. We show that without additional information, treatment effects are not…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-02 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Juan Carlos Escanciano

Multicollinearity produces an inflation in the variance of the Ordinary Least Squares estimators due to the correlation between two or more independent variables (including the constant term). A widely applied solution is to estimate with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-30 Román Salmerón Gómez , Catalina García García , José García Pérez

Consider the heteroscedastic nonparametric regression model with random design \begin{align*} Y_i = f(X_i) + V^{1/2}(X_i)\varepsilon_i, \quad i=1,2,\ldots,n, \end{align*} with $f(\cdot)$ and $V(\cdot)$ $\alpha$- and $\beta$-H\"older smooth,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-06 Yandi Shen , Chao Gao , Daniela Witten , Fang Han

We study least squares linear regression over $N$ uncorrelated Gaussian features that are selected in order of decreasing variance. When the number of selected features $p$ is at most the sample size $n$, the estimator under consideration…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-04 Ji Xu , Daniel Hsu