Related papers: Predicting growth fluctuation in network economy

Economic models with input-output networks assume that firm or sector (unit) growth is driven by a weighted sum of trade partners' growth and an independently-drawn idiosyncratic shock. I show that the idiosyncratic risk assumption in a…

Statistical uncertainty of different filtration techniques for market network analysis is studied. Two measures of statistical uncertainty are discussed. One is based on conditional risk for multiple decision statistical procedures and…

We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for…

In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise…

We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…

We present an analysis of the credit market of Japan. The analysis is performed by investigating the bipartite network of banks and firms which is obtained by setting a link between a bank and a firm when a credit relationship is present in…

Growth of business firms or companies has been a subject of intensive research over a century. However, there still remains controversy about the basic mechanisms of their growth. Inspired by previous work on scaling laws in other systems,…

The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of…

Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…

Individual components of many real-world complex networks produce and exchange resources among themselves. However, because the resource production in such networks is almost always stochastic, fluctuations in the production are…

The evolution of the Internet has manifested itself in many ways: the traffic characteristics, the interconnection topologies and the business relationships among the autonomous components. It is important to understand why (and how) this…

With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global…

Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm…

In order to maintain consistent quality of service, computer network engineers face the task of monitoring the traffic fluctuations on the individual links making up the network. However, due to resource constraints and limited access, it…

We study financial systems from a game-theoretic standpoint. A financial system is represented by a network, where nodes correspond to firms, and directed labeled edges correspond to debt contracts between them. The existence of cycles in…

Network economics is the study of a rich class of equilibrium problems that occur in the real world, from traffic management to supply chains and two-sided online marketplaces. In this paper we explore causal inference in network economics,…

The emergence of interconnected urban networks is a crucial feature of globalisation processes. Understanding the drivers behind the growth of such networks - in particular urban firm networks -, is essential for the economic resilience of…

Processes on networks consist of two interdependent parts: the network topology, consisting of the links between nodes, and the dynamics, specified by some governing equations. This work considers the prediction of the future dynamics on an…

Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…

We study size and growth distributions of products and business firms in the context of a given industry. Firm size growth is analyzed in terms of two basic mechanisms, i.e. the increase of the number of new elementary business units and…