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Learning from time series is fundamentally different from learning from i.i.d.\ data: temporal dependence can make long sequences effectively information-poor, yet standard evaluation protocols conflate sequence length with statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Barak Gahtan , Alex M. Bronstein

We study the fundamental problem of learning with respect to the squared loss in a convex class. The state-of-the-art sample complexity estimates in this setting rely on Rademacher complexities, which are generally difficult to control. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-24 Daniel Bartl , Shahar Mendelson

Stochastic iterative methods are useful in a variety of large-scale numerical linear algebraic, machine learning, and statistical problems, in part due to their low-memory footprint. They are frequently used in a variety of applications,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Toby Anderson , Max Collins , Jamie Haddock , Jackie Lok , Elizaveta Rebrova

A crucial assumption in most statistical learning theory is that samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, for many real applications, the i.i.d. assumption does not hold. We consider learning problems in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Rui Ray Zhang , Xingwu Liu , Yuyi Wang , Liwei Wang

Empirical process theory for i.i.d. observations has emerged as a ubiquitous tool for understanding the generalization properties of various statistical problems. However, in many applications where the data exhibit temporal dependencies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-18 Nabarun Deb , Debarghya Mukherjee

We consider the problem of bounding large deviations for non-i.i.d. random variables that are allowed to have arbitrary dependencies. Previous works typically assumed a specific dependence structure, namely the existence of independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-06 Christoph H. Lampert , Liva Ralaivola , Alexander Zimin

This paper provides norm-based generalization bounds for the Transformer architecture that do not depend on the input sequence length. We employ a covering number based approach to prove our bounds. We use three novel covering number bounds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-23 Jacob Trauger , Ambuj Tewari

For the challenging task of modeling multivariate time series, we propose a new class of models that use dependent Mat\'ern processes to capture the underlying structure of data, explain their interdependencies, and predict their unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-13 Alexander Vandenberg-Rodes , Babak Shahbaba

We estimate the parameter of a stationary time series process by minimizing the integrated weighted mean squared error between the empirical and simulated characteristic function, when the true characteristic functions cannot be explicitly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Richard A. Davis , Thiago do Rêgo Sousa , Claudia Klüppelberg

Most generalization bounds in learning theory are based on some measure of the complexity of the hypothesis class used, independently of any algorithm. In contrast, the notion of algorithmic stability can be used to derive tight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2008-11-12 Mehryar Mohri , Afshin Rostamizadeh

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger, 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Linus Bleistein , Agathe Guilloux

Many machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks; for example, adding adversarial perturbations that are imperceptible to humans can often make machine learning models produce wrong predictions with high confidence.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-30 Dong Yin , Kannan Ramchandran , Peter Bartlett

The aim of this paper is to give a simpler, more usable sufficient condition to the regularity of generic weakly stationary time series. Also, this condition is used to show how regular processes satisfying these sufficient conditions can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Tamás Szabados

We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-06-10 Daniil Ryabko , Jérémie Mary

Stationarity is a very general, qualitative assumption, that can be assessed on the basis of application specifics. It is thus a rather attractive assumption to base statistical analysis on, especially for problems for which less general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Daniil Ryabko

We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-24 Peter D. Grünwald , Nishant A. Mehta

This paper develops a general concentration inequality for the suprema of empirical processes with dependent data. The concentration inequality is obtained by combining generic chaining with a coupling-based strategy. Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Chiara Amorino , Christian Brownlees , Ankita Ghosh

We extend some sharp inequalities for martingale-differences to general multiplicative systems of random variables. The key ingredient in the proofs is a technique reducing the general case to the case of Rademacher random variables without…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2022-04-29 Grigori A. Karagulyan

Linear predictors form a rich class of hypotheses used in a variety of learning algorithms. We present a tight analysis of the empirical Rademacher complexity of the family of linear hypothesis classes with weight vectors bounded in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-23 Pranjal Awasthi , Natalie Frank , Mehryar Mohri

We investigate approaches to regularisation during fine-tuning of deep neural networks. First we provide a neural network generalisation bound based on Rademacher complexity that uses the distance the weights have moved from their initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Henry Gouk , Timothy M. Hospedales , Massimiliano Pontil