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In this paper we propose a semi-parametric Bayesian Generalized Least Squares estimator. In a generic setting where each error is a vector, the parametric Generalized Least Square estimator maintains the assumption that each error vector…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-01 Ruochen Wu , Melvyn Weeks

This paper develops a finite-sample statistical theory for in-context learning (ICL), analyzed within a meta-learning framework that accommodates mixtures of diverse task types. We introduce a principled risk decomposition that separates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Tomoya Wakayama , Taiji Suzuki

Recognizing the successes of treed Gaussian process (TGP) models as an interpretable and thrifty model for nonparametric regression, we seek to extend the model to classification. Both treed models and Gaussian processes (GPs) have,…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-09-28 Tamara Broderick , Robert B. Gramacy

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

Selecting an appropriate evaluation metric for classifiers is crucial for model comparison, parameter optimization, and deployment decisions, yet there is no consensus on a broadly accepted evaluation paradigm explicitly aligned with Total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Pierangelo Lombardo , Antonio Casoli , Cristian Cingolani , Shola Oshodi , Michele Zanatta

The rise of self-supervised learning, which operates without the need for labeled data, has garnered significant interest within the graph learning community. This enthusiasm has led to the development of numerous Graph Contrastive Learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Qian Ma , Hongliang Chi , Hengrui Zhang , Kay Liu , Zhiwei Zhang , Lu Cheng , Suhang Wang , Philip S. Yu , Yao Ma

This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-01-18 Alireza Ahrabian

Bayesian neural networks promise calibrated uncertainty but require $O(mn)$ parameters for standard mean-field Gaussian posteriors. We argue this cost is often unnecessary, particularly when weight matrices exhibit fast singular value…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Mame Diarra Toure , David A. Stephens

We consider the situation where the observed sample contains some observations whose class of origin is known (that is, they are classified with respect to the g underlying classes of interest), and where the remaining observations in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-15 Geoffrey J. McLachlan , Daniel Ahfock

Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final…

Semi-supervised learning by self-training heavily relies on pseudo-label selection (PLS). The selection often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting might thus be propagated to the final model by selecting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-27 Julian Rodemann , Jann Goschenhofer , Emilio Dorigatti , Thomas Nagler , Thomas Augustin

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Neural networks appear to have mysterious generalization properties when using parameter counting as a proxy for complexity. Indeed, neural networks often have many more parameters than there are data points, yet still provide good…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Wesley J. Maddox , Gregory Benton , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-21 Johannes Oberpriller , T. A. Enßlin

Joint models (JMs) for longitudinal and time-to-event data are an important class of biostatistical models in health and medical research. When the study population consists of heterogeneous subgroups, the standard JM may be inadequate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Sida Chen , Danilo Alvares , Marco Palma , Jessica K. Barrett

We investigate the choice of tuning parameters for a Bayesian multi-level group lasso model developed for the joint analysis of neuroimaging and genetic data. The regression model we consider relates multivariate phenotypes consisting of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-29 Farouk S. Nathoo , Keelin Greenlaw , Mary Lesperance

In binary classification problems, mainly two approaches have been proposed; one is loss function approach and the other is uncertainty set approach. The loss function approach is applied to major learning algorithms such as support vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-01 Takafumi Kanamori , Akiko Takeda , Taiji Suzuki

Challenging research in various fields has driven a wide range of methodological advances in variable selection for regression models with high-dimensional predictors. In comparison, selection of nonlinear functions in models with additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-05 Fabian Scheipl , Thomas Kneib , Ludwig Fahrmeir

Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-26 Keisuke Yamazaki

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines