Related papers: Erratum for: Smile dynamics -- a theory of the imp…
This paper investigates the so-called leakage effect of trading strategies generated functionally from rank-dependent portfolio generating functions. This effect measures the loss in wealth of trading strategies due to renewing the…
We obtain an elementary characterization of expected utility based on a representation of choice in terms of psychological gambles, which requires no assumption other than coherence between ex-ante and ex-post preferences. Weaker version of…
The optimistic nature of the Q-learning target leads to an overestimation bias, which is an inherent problem associated with standard $Q-$learning. Such a bias fails to account for the possibility of low returns, particularly in risky…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied…
Implicit bias describes the phenomenon where optimization-based training algorithms, without explicit regularization, show a preference for simple estimators even when more complex estimators have equal objective values. Multiple works have…
Confidence estimation is crucial for reflecting the reliability of large language models (LLMs), particularly in the widely used closed-source models. Utilizing data augmentation for confidence estimation is viable, but discussions focus on…
There are many algorithms for regret minimisation in episodic reinforcement learning. This problem is well-understood from a theoretical perspective, providing that the sequences of states, actions and rewards associated with each episode…
While the original Ait-Sahalia interest rate model has been found considerable use as a model for describing time series evolution of interest rates, it may not possess adequate specifications to explain responses of interest rates to…
We propose a new volatility model based on two stylized facts of the volatility in the stock market: clustering and leverage effect. We calibrate our model parameters, in the leading order, with 77 years Dow Jones Industrial Average data.…
Evolutionary game theory has been an important tool for describing economic and social behaviour for decades. Approximate mean value equations describing the time evolution of strategy concentrations can be derived from the players'…
This paper examines the possibility of using derivative-implied risk premia to explain stock returns. The rapid development of derivative markets has led to the possibility of trading various kinds of risks, such as credit and interest rate…
Oil companies are among the largest companies in the world whose economic indicators in the global stock market have a great impact on the world economy\cite{ec00} and market due to their relation to gold\cite{ec01}, crude oil\cite{ec02},…
Environmental epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the effect of time-varying functions of the exposure history on health outcomes. However, the individual exposure measurements that constitute the history upon which an…
When trading incurs proportional costs, leverage can scale an asset's return only up to a maximum multiple, which is sensitive to its volatility and liquidity. In a model with one safe and one risky asset, with constant investment…
The measures of roughness of the volatility in the litterature are based on the realized volatility of high frequency data. Some authors show that this leads to a biased estimate, and does not necessarily indicate roughness of the…
We provide foundations for decisions in face of unlikely events by extending the standard framework of Savage to include preferences indexed by a family of events. We derive a subjective lexicographic expected utility representation which…
The paper studies estimation of parameters of diffusion market models from historical data. The standard definition of implied volatility for these models presents its value as an implicit function of several parameters, including the…
We present a stochastic-local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures able to describe forward-curve and smile dynamics with a fast calibration to liquid market quotes. A parsimonious parametrization is introduced to…