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Related papers: Bounds on the Bayes Error Given Moments

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In semidefinite programming a proposed optimal solution may be quite poor in spite of having sufficiently small residual in the optimality conditions. This issue may be framed in terms of the discrepancy between forward error (the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-14 Stefan Sremac , Hugo J. Woerdeman , Henry Wolkowicz

One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-02 H. L. Gan

We provide an elementary proof of the lower bound for the variance of continuous unimodal distributions and obtain analogous bounds for the higher order central moments. A lower bound for the rth central moment of discrete distribution is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-16 R. Sharma , R. Bhandari , R. Saini

The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Marcus Hutter

In this paper, a uniform (over some parameter space) moment bound for the inverse of Fisher's information matrix is established. This result is then applied to develop moment bounds for the normalized least squares estimate in (nonlinear)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-22 Ngai Hang Chan , Ching-Kang Ing

We provide a Lyapunov type bound in the multivariate central limit theorem for sums of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed random vectors. The error in the normal approximation is estimated for certain classes of sets,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-24 Martin Raič

Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-12 Anulekha Dhara , Bikramjit Das , Karthik Natarajan

The problem of quantum state discrimination between two wave functions on a ring is considered. The optimal minimum-error probability is known to be given by the Helstrom bound. A new strategy is introduced by inserting either adiabatically…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-02-19 Bernhard K. Meister

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

Models phrased though moment conditions are central to much of modern inference. Here these moment conditions are embedded within a nonparametric Bayesian setup. Handling such a model is not probabilistically straightforward as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-14 Luke Bornn , Neil Shephard , Reza Solgi

Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-20 Patrick Schwaferts , Thomas Augustin

We derive, in the classical framework of Bayesian sensitivity analysis, optimal lower and upper bounds on posterior values obtained from Bayesian models that exactly capture an arbitrarily large number of finite-dimensional marginals of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Tim Sullivan

This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-16 François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant , Liva Ralaivola , Jean-Francis Roy

We prove lower bounds on the number of samples needed to privately estimate the covariance matrix of a Gaussian distribution. Our bounds match existing upper bounds in the widest known setting of parameters. Our analysis relies on the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Victor S. Portella , Nick Harvey

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Song Fang , Mikael Skoglund , Karl Henrik Johansson , Hideaki Ishii , Quanyan Zhu

The article starts with new aliasing-truncation error upper bounds in the sampling theorem for non-bandlimited stochastic signals. Then, it investigates $L_p([0,T])$ approximations of sub-Gaussian random signals. Explicit truncation error…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-08-15 Yuriy Kozachenko , Andriy Olenko

We revisit the classic problem of aggregating binary advice from conditionally independent experts, also known as the Naive Bayes setting. Our quantity of interest is the error probability of the optimal decision rule. In the case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Aryeh Kontorovich , Ariel Avital

This paper studies quasi Bayesian estimation and uncertainty quantification for an unknown function that is identified by a nonparametric conditional moment restriction. We derive contraction rates for a class of Gaussian process priors.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-08 Sid Kankanala

We develop efficient algorithms for estimating low-degree moments of unknown distributions in the presence of adversarial outliers. The guarantees of our algorithms improve in many cases significantly over the best previous ones, obtained…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Pravesh K. Kothari , David Steurer