Related papers: Towards Modeling HIV Long Term Behavior

We study the spread of disease in an SIS model. The model considered is a time-varying, switched model, in which the parameters of the SIS model are subject to abrupt change. We show that the joint spectral radius can be used as a threshold…

In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…

An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the…

Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…

The emergence of diseases such as Zika and Ebola has highlighted the need to understand the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper we develop a number of…

A dynamic model of non-lineal time-dependent ordinary differential equations (ODE) has been applied to the interactions of a HIV infection with the immune system cells. This model has been simplified into two compartments: lymph node and…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…

We develop a general dynamical model as a framework for possible causal interpretation. We first state a criterion of local independence in terms of measurability of processes involved in the Doob-Meyer decomposition of stochastic…

We report a first in modeling and simulation of the effects of the HIV proteins on the (caspase dependent) apoptotic pathway in infected cells. This work is novel and is an extension on the recent reports and clarifications on the FAS…

Methods are lacking to handle the problem of survival analysis in the presence of an interval-censored covariate, specifically the case in which the conditional hazard of the primary event of interest depends on the occurrence of a…

Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…

This paper investigates the effect of drug treatment on the standard within-host HIV model, assuming that therapy occurs periodically. It is shown that eradication is possible under these periodic regimes, and we quantitatively characterize…

We present a comprehensive statistical methodological framework for estimating contextual exposure to HIV that includes local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV prevalence and human activity space estimation based on GPS data. The…

We consider a simple deterministic model which describes an asymmetric competition between an immune system with a specific and powerful response, and a virus with a broad toxicity and fast mutations. Interest in this model relies on the…

Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…

In early HIV infection, the virus population escapes from multiple CD8+ cell responses. The later an escape mutation emerges, the slower it outgrows its competition, i. e. the escape rate is lower. This pattern could indicate that the…

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

This paper considers the problem of modeling epidemic outbreaks in different regions with a common model, that uses additional information about these regions to adjust its parameters and relieve us of mundanity of data collecting, and…

This research reports on the relationship and significance of social-economic factors (age, sex, employment status) and modes of HIV/AIDS transmission to the HIV/AIDS spread. Logistic regression model, a form of probabilistic function for…

Drug resistance remains a major problem for the treatment of HIV. Resistance can occur due to mutations that were present before treatment starts or due to mutations that occur during treatment. The relative importance of these two sources…