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We consider the problem of statistical inference in a parametric finite Markov chain model and develop a robust estimator of the parameters defining the transition probabilities via minimization of a suitable (empirical) version of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Abhik Ghosh

Phylogenetic inference is an intractable statistical problem on a complex space. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are the primary tool for Bayesian phylogenetic inference but it is challenging to construct efficient schemes to explore the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-11 Luke J. Kelly , Robin J. Ryder , Grégoire Clarté

A weak measurement on a system is made by coupling a pointer weakly to the system and then measuring the position of the pointer. If the initial wavefunction for the pointer is real, the mean displacement of the pointer is proportional to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Graeme Mitchison

In this paper, we characterize the stability of matrix-valued Markovian chains by periodic data.

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-24 Xiongping Dai , Tingwen Huang , Yu Huang

This paper offers a personal review of some things we've learned about rates of convergence of Markov chains to their stationary distributions. The main topic is ways of speeding up diffusive behavior. It also points to open problems and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Persi Diaconis

The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Lu-Jing Huang , Yong-Hua Mao

We study notions of robustness of Markov kernels and probability distribution of a system that is described by $n$ input random variables and one output random variable. Markov kernels can be expanded in a series of potentials that allow to…

Commutative Algebra · Mathematics 2011-10-07 Johannes Rauh , Nihat Ay

In this paper we survey some recent results on the central limit theorem and its weak invariance principle for stationary sequences. We also describe several maximal inequalities that are the main tool for obtaining the invariance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad , Sergey Utev

This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-29 James M. Flegal , Rebecca P. Kurtz-Garcia

The main purpose of this article is to establish moderate deviation principles for additive functionals of bifurcating Markov chains. Bifurcating Markov chains are a class of processes which are indexed by a regular binary tree. They can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Gorgui Gackou

We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Michel Mandjes , Brendan Patch , Neil Walton

This is an expository paper on Lyapunov stability of equilibria of autonomous Hamiltonian systems. Our aim is to clarify the concept of weak instability, namely instability without non-constant motions which have the equilibrium as limit…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-10-05 Gaetano Zampieri

Given a strongly stationary Markov chain and a finite set of stopping rules, we prove the existence of a polynomial algorithm which projects the Markov chain onto a minimal Markov chain without redundant information. Markov complexity is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Giacomo Aletti

The Kingman coalescent is a fundamental process in population genetics modelling the ancestry of a sample of individuals backwards in time. In this paper, in a large-sample-size regime, we study asymptotic properties of the coalescent under…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-17 Martina Favero , Henrik Hult

The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Anja Janßen , Johan Segers

A noncommutative Fornasini-Marchesini system (a multi-variable version of a linear system) can be realized within a weak Markov process (a model for quantum evolution). For a discrete time parameter the resulting structure is worked out…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-26 Rolf Gohm

A new approach is developed for evaluating the convergence rate for nonlinear Markov chains (MC) based on the recently developed spectral radius technique of markovian coupling for linear MC and the idea of small nonlinear perturbations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Alexander Shchegolev , Alexander Veretennikov

In this paper we propose a novel variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains based on minimization of an estimate for the asymptotic variance of these functionals over suitable classes of control variates. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-18 D. Belomestny , L. Iosipoi , E. Moulines , A. Naumov , S. Samsonov

We consider a discrete-time Markov chain $(X^t,Y^t)$, $t=0,1,2,...$, where the $X$-component forms a Markov chain itself. Assume that $(X^t)$ is Harris-ergodic and consider an auxiliary Markov chain ${\hat{Y}^t}$ whose transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-13 Sergey Foss , Seva Shneer , Andrey Tyurlikov

The rapid advancement of technology underscores the critical importance of robustness in complex network systems. This paper presents a framework for investigating the structural robustness of interconnected network models. This paper…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-01 Dong Gaogao , Sun Nannan , Wang Fan
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