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We consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large data sets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example in genetics as we analyse larger regions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 R. Killick , P. Fearnhead , I. A. Eckley

We study the multichannel quickest change detection problem with bandit feedback and controlled sensing, in which an agent sequentially selects one of the data streams to observe at each time-step and aims to detect an unknown change as…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yu-Han Huang , Argyrios Gerogiannis , Subhonmesh Bose , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d data, focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Lei Xin , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

We consider the problem of quickest change detection (QCD) in a signal where its observations are obtained using a set of actions, and switching from one action to another comes with a cost. The objective is to design a stopping rule…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-22 Tze Siong Lau , Wee Peng Tay

This paper deals with off-line detection of change points for time series of independent observations, when the number of change points is unknown. We propose a sequential analysis like method with linear time and memory complexity. Our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Pierre R. Bertrand , Mehdi Fhima , Arnaud Guillin

The trade-off between the cost of acquiring and processing data, and uncertainty due to a lack of data is fundamental in machine learning. A basic instance of this trade-off is the problem of deciding when to make noisy and costly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-30 Christopher R. Dance , Tomi Silander

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Haoxuan Wu , Toryn L. J. Schafer , Sean Ryan , David S. Matteson

We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Robert Mattila , Cristian R. Rojas , Vikram Krishnamurthy , Bo Wahlberg

We investigate modifications to Bayesian Optimization for a resource-constrained setting of sequential experimental design where changes to certain design variables of the search space incur a switching cost. This models the scenario where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Stefan Pricopie , Richard Allmendinger , Manuel Lopez-Ibanez , Clyde Fare , Matt Benatan , Joshua Knowles

A novel quickest detection setting is proposed which is a generalization of the well-known Bayesian change-point detection model. Suppose \{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i\geq 1} is a sequence of pairs of random variables, and that S is a stopping time with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Urs Niesen , Aslan Tchamkerten

Existing drift detection methods focus on designing sensitive test statistics. They treat the detection threshold as a fixed hyperparameter, set once to balance false alarms and late detections, and applied uniformly across all datasets and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Pengqian Lu , Jie Lu , Anjin Liu , En Yu , Guangquan Zhang

This paper studies an optimal ON-OFF control problem for a class of discrete event systems with real-time constraints. Our goal is to minimize the overall costs, including the operating cost and the wake-up cost, while still guaranteeing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Lei Miao , Lijian Xu , Dingde Jiang

Classical quickest change detection algorithms require modeling pre-change and post-change distributions. Such an approach may not be feasible for various machine learning models because of the complexity of computing the explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-02 Suya Wu , Enmao Diao , Taposh Banerjee , Jie Ding , Vahid Tarokh

A finite-horizon variant of the quickest change detection (QCD) problem that is of relevance to learning in non-stationary environments is studied. The metric characterizing false alarms is the probability of a false alarm occurring before…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Yu-Han Huang , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

This paper combines data-driven and model-driven methods for real-time misinformation detection. Our algorithm, named QuickStop, is an optimal stopping algorithm based on a probabilistic information spreading model obtained from labeled…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Honghao Wei , Xiaohan Kang , Weina Wang , Lei Ying

We study the problem of covert quickest change detection in a discrete-time setting, where a sequence of observations undergoes a distributional change at an unknown time. Unlike classical formulations, we consider a covert adversary who…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Amir Reza Ramtin , Philippe Nain , Don Towsley

Inverse optimal control (IOC) aims to estimate the underlying cost that governs the observed behavior of an expert system. However, in practical scenarios, the collected data is often corrupted by noise, which poses significant challenges…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Ziliang Wang , Axel Ringh , Han Zhang

This paper establishes a stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems governed by time-changed forward-backward stochastic differential equations with L\'evy noise. The system incorporates a random, non-decreasing operational…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Jingwei Chen , Jun Ye , Feng Chen

We consider a sequential problem in decentralized detection. Two observers can make repeated noisy observations of a binary hypothesis on the state of the environment. At any time, any of the two observers can stop and send a final message…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Ashutosh Nayyar , Demosthenis Teneketzis
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