Related papers: Credit contagion and risk management with multiple…
While defaults are rare events, losses can be substantial even for credit portfolios with a large number of contracts. Therefore, not only a good evaluation of the probability of default is crucial, but also the severity of losses needs to…
Universal behavior is a typical emergent feature of critical systems. A paramount model of the non-equilibrium critical behavior is the directed bond percolation process that exhibits an active- to-absorbing state phase transition in the…
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all…
The aim of this article is to analyze data from multiple repairable systems under the presence of dependent competing risks. In order to model this dependence structure, we adopted the well-known shared frailty model. This model provides a…
We present a multilayer network model for credit risk assessment. Our model accounts for multiple connections between borrowers (such as their geographic location and their economic activity) and allows for explicitly modelling the…
Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty correlated default…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
Models of contagion arise broadly both in the biological and social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the diffusion of innovations and the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we…
A negative basis trade enters a long bond position and buys protection on the issuer of the bond through credit default swap (CDS), aiming at arbitrage profit due to the bond-CDS basis. To classic reduced form model theorists, the existence…
Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
Most of the banks' operational risk internal models are based on loss pooling in risk and business line categories. The parameters and outputs of operational risk models are sensitive to the pooling of the data and the choice of the risk…
We propose a semi-structured discrete-time multi-state model to analyse mortgage delinquency transitions. This model combines an easy-to-understand structured additive predictor, which includes linear effects and smooth functions of time…
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite…
Trading activities in financial systems create various channels through which systemic risk can propagate. An important contagion channel is financial fire sales, where a bank failure causes asset prices to fall due to asset liquidation,…
This paper studies the optimal dividend for a multi-line insurance group, in which each subsidiary runs a product line and is exposed to some external credit risk. The default contagion is considered such that one default event may increase…
We show that lenders face more uncertainty when assessing default risk of historically under-served groups in US credit markets and that this information disparity is a quantitatively important driver of inefficient and unequal credit…
Digital banking and online communication have made modern bank runs faster and more networked than the canonical queue-at-the-branch setting. While equilibrium models explain why strategic complementarities generate run risk, they offer…
Nowadays consumer loan plays an important role in promoting the economic growth, and credit cards are the most popular consumer loan. One of the most essential parts in credit cards is the credit limit management. Traditionally, credit…
When exposed to a contagion phenomenon, individuals may respond to the perceived risk of infection by adopting behavioral changes, aiming to reduce their exposure or their risk of infecting others. The social cost of such adaptive behaviors…