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We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…
Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen integral estimators to the tail index of right-censored Pareto-type data traditionally rely on the assumption that the proportion p of upper uncensored observations exceeds one-half, corresponding to weak…
We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…
Here we suppose that the observed random variable has cumulative distribution function $F$ with regularly varying tail, i.e. $1-F \in RV_{-\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$. Using the results about exponential order statistics we investigate…
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…
Numerous approaches are proposed in the literature for non-stationarity marginal extreme value inference, including different model parameterisations with respect to covariate, and different inference schemes. The objective of this article…
Since the extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behaviour of the distribution function, the estimation of EVI is a very important topic in extreme value theory. Recent developments in the estimation of EVI along with covariates have…
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…
This paper introduces a class of copula models for spatial data, based on multivariate Pareto-mixture distributions. We explore the tail properties of these models, demonstrating their ability to capture both tail dependence and asymptotic…
This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…
Stimulated by the Boston house price data, in this paper, we propose a semiparametric spatial dynamic model, which extends the ordinary spatial autoregressive models to accommodate the effects of some covariates associated with the house…
A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…
The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…
Expectile, as the minimizer of an asymmetric quadratic loss function, is a coherent risk measure and is helpful to use more information about the distribution of the considered risk. In this paper, we propose a new risk measure by replacing…
The Peaks-Over Threshold is a fundamental method in the estimation of rare events such as small exceedance probabilities, extreme quantiles and return periods. The main problem with the Peaks-Over Threshold method relates to the selection…
A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…
This paper investigates pooling strategies for tail index and extreme quantile estimation from heavy-tailed data. To fully exploit the information contained in several samples, we present general weighted pooled Hill estimators of the tail…
Currently, the high-precision estimation of nonlinear parameters such as Gini indices, low-income proportions or other measures of inequality is particularly crucial. In the present paper, we propose a general class of estimators for such…
In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…
This paper studies the identification and estimation of weighted average derivatives of conditional location functionals including conditional mean and conditional quantiles in settings where either the outcome variable or a regressor is…