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Let $X_{1,n}\le\cdots\le X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics of $n$ independent random variables with a common distribution function $F$ having right heavy tail with tail index $\gamma$. Given known constants $d_{i,n}$, $1\le i\le n$, consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Lillian Achola Oluoch , László Viharos

The central limit theorem introduced by Stute [The central limit theorem under random censorship. Ann. Statist. 1995; 23: 422-439] does not hold for some class of heavy-tailed distributions. In this paper, we make use of the extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-19 Louiza Soltane , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir

We consider stationary sequences whose marginal tail is subexponential and lies in the Gumbel Maximum domain of attraction. Due to the extremely strong dependence, their extreme values are caused by multiple big values and are clustered in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Zao-Li Chen

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-28 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan , Scott A. Sisson

We consider an estimation problem of expected functionals of a general random element that values in a metric space. If the functional forms an explicit function of some unknown parameters, we can estimate it by plugging-in a suitable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-02 Yasutaka Shimizu

We propose a functional accelerated failure time model to characterize effects of both functional and scalar covariates on the time to event of interest, and provide regularity conditions to guarantee model identifiability. For efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Changyu Liu , Wen Su , Kin-Yat Liu , Guosheng Yin , Xingqiu Zhao

We present a novel procedure for scaling relatively high frequency tail probability and quantile estimates for the conditional distribution of returns.

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-31 John Cotter

We establish functional limit theorems for ergodic sums of observables with power singularities for expanding circle maps. In the regime where the observables have infinite variance, we show that when rescaled by $N^{1/s}(\ln N)^\alpha$,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Dmitry Dolgopyat , Sixu Liu

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Benjamin Köhler , Anton J. Heckens , Thomas Guhr

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Mitchell Krock , Julie Bessac , Michael L. Stein , Adam H. Monahan

Functional data analysis has gained significant attention due to its wide applicability. This research explores the extension of statistical analysis methods for functional data, with a primary focus on supervised classification techniques.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-25 Catalina Lesmes , Francisco Zuluaga , Henry Laniado , Andres Gomez , Andrea Carvajal

In many application areas of extreme value theory, the variables of interest are not directly observable but instead contain errors. In this article, we quantify the effect of these errors in moment-based extreme value index estimation, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Jaakko Pere , Pauliina Ilmonen , Lauri Viitasaari

Confounding variables are a recurrent challenge for causal discovery and inference. In many situations, complex causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extreme events, or take simpler forms in the extremes. Stimulated by data on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Olivier C. Pasche , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Anthony C. Davison

Efficient estimation under bias sampling, censoring or truncation is a difficult question which has been partially answered and the usual estimators are not always consistent. Several biased designs are considered for models with variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-10-22 Odile Pons

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-02 Paul J. Northrop

A recent development in extreme value modeling uses the geometry of the dataset to perform inference on the multivariate tail. A key quantity in this inference is the gauge function, whose values define this geometry. Methodology proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Ryan Campbell , Jennifer Wadsworth

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł