Related papers: B\"o\"ogg Bang drives global climate change
It is shown that global climate exhibits chaotic response to solar forcing variability in a vast range of timescales: from annual to multi-millennium. Unlike linear systems, where periodic forcing leads to periodic response, nonlinear…
In this brief report we discuss how continuous changes on the physical parameters that determine the weather conditions may lead to long term climate variability. This variability of the weather patterns are a response to continuous random…
We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…
Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…
We have shown that commonly used model-fitting methods fail when the underlying ecological system is chaotic. Importantly, Hartig & Dormann [arXiv:1305.3544] suggest an alternative method that is able to overcome this problem for the…
Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified…
Modern weather stations in Germany record daily temperatures every 10 minutes, whereas measurements from historical reference periods are often only available at much coarser temporal resolutions, typically hourly. This discrepancy must be…
Approximately 1.4 Ga after life first appeared, atmospheric oxygen suddenly jumped by more than an order of magnitude over a 20-50 Ma period. The contrast between these two timescales does not seem to be due to any sudden, large amplitude…
Using an intermediate complexity climate model (Planet Simulator), we investigate the so-called Snowball Earth transition. For certain values of the solar constant, the climate system allows two different stable states: one of them is the…
We describe a highly unusual microlensing event, OGLE-1999-BUL-19, which exhibits multiple peaks in its light curve. The Einstein radius crossing time for this event is approximately one year, which is unusually long. We show that the…
We present the CIENS dataset, which contains ensemble weather forecasts from the operational convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service. It comprises forecasts for 55 meteorological variables…
This study investigates lightning at tall objects and evaluates the risk of upward lightning (UL) over the eastern Alps and its surrounding areas. While uncommon, UL poses a threat, especially to wind turbines, as the long-duration current…
Magneto-Rossby waves in the solar tachocline are currently considered to be one of the main determinants of solar activity. In particular, they can give rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The latter was recently shown to be…
Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of 'operational stability' versus 'dynamic development' of the involved models.…
Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation,…
Wildfires pose a significant natural disaster risk to populations and contribute to accelerated climate change. As wildfires are also affected by climate change, extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent. Although they occur less…
Urbanization of an area is known to increase the temperature of the surrounding area. This phenomenon -- a so-called urban heat island (UHI) -- occurs at a local level over a period of time and has lasting impacts for historical data…
The oral traditions of Aboriginal cultures across Australia contain references to the presence of multiple Suns in the sky at the same time. Explanations of this have been largely regarded as symbolic or mythological, rather than…
Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…