Related papers: B\"o\"ogg Bang drives global climate change
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…
The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the "risk-based" approach to attribution attempt to give an…
The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
Some modern cosmological models predict the appearance of Boltzmann Brains: observers who randomly fluctuate out of a thermal bath rather than naturally evolving from a low-entropy Big Bang. A theory in which most observers are of the…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $\alpha$-stable non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a…
Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on…
Globally disruptive events include asteroid/comet impacts, large igneous provinces and glaciations, all of which have been considered as contributors to mass extinctions. Understanding the overall relationship between the timings of the…
Skillful seasonal prediction of lightning is crucial over several global hotspot regions, as it causes severe damages to infrastructures and losses of human life. While major emphasis has been given for predicting rainfall, prediction of…
Important issues about climate change are summarized and discussed: A large body of evidence shows that the world climate is getting warmer. Climate models give a consistent explanation of this observation once human-made emissions of…
Climate models are biased with respect to real-world observations. They usually need to be adjusted before being used in impact studies. The suite of statistical methods that enable such adjustments is called bias correction (BC). However,…
In many complex systems studied in statistical physics, inter-arrival times between events such as solar flares, trades and neuron voltages follow a heavy-tailed distribution. The set of event times is fractal-like, being dense in some time…
Due to climate change, the extreme wildfire has become one of the most dangerous natural hazards to human civilization. Even though, some wildfires may be initially caused by human activity, but the spread of wildfires is mainly determined…