Related papers: A semi-Markov model for price returns
It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
With the increasing integration of power plants into the frequency-regulation markets, the importance of optimal trading has grown substantially. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of their optimal trading behavior in sequential…
The aim of this paper is to examine the time scaling of the semivariance when returns are modeled by various types of jump-diffusion processes, including stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and in volatility. In particular,…
Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…
This paper describes the dependence of market-based statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of the current and past trade values. We use Markowitz's definition of value weighted return of a portfolio as the…
Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…
We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…
A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
This research attempts to model the stochastic process of trades in a limit order book market as a marked point process. We propose a semi-parametric model for the conditional distribution given the past, attempting to capture the effect of…
A regularized vector autoregressive hidden semi-Markov model is developed to analyze multivariate financial time series with switching data generating regimes. Furthermore, an augmented EM algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation by…
In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial…
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the…
This research analyses high-frequency data of the cryptocurrency market in regards to intraday trading patterns related to algorithmic trading and its impact on the European cryptocurrency market. We study trading quantitatives such as…
We present a finite-dimensional version of the quantum model for the stock market proposed in [C. Zhang and L. Huang, A quantum model for the stock market, Physica A 389(2010) 5769]. Our approach is an attempt to make this model consistent…
The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used with this purpose but better models are…
In a fixed time horizon, appropriately executing a large amount of a particular asset -- meaning a considerable portion of the volume traded within this frame -- is challenging. Especially for illiquid or even highly liquid but also highly…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…