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This study investigates the influence of risk tolerance on the expected utility in the long run. We estimate the extent to which the expected utility of optimal portfolios is affected by small changes in the risk tolerance. For this…
The study of long-horizon returns has received a great deal of attention in recent years (see, for example, Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2008), Neuberger (2012) and Lee (2013), Fama and French (2018)). While most of the discussions…
Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
In recent years, multi-access edge computing (MEC) is a key enabler for handling the massive expansion of Internet of Things (IoT) applications and services. However, energy consumption of a MEC network depends on volatile tasks that…
This paper introduces a novel approach to addressing uncertainty and associated risks in power system management, focusing on the discrepancies between forecasted and actual values of load demand and renewable power generation. By employing…
In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of structured products in energy markets, such as swing and virtual gas storage, using the exponential utility indifference pricing approach in a general incomplete multivariate market model…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…
This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…
We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…
Agents' learning from feedback shapes economic outcomes, and many economic decision-makers today employ learning algorithms to make consequential choices. This note shows that a widely used learning algorithm, $\varepsilon$-Greedy, exhibits…
This work considers a Bayesian signal processing problem where increasing the power of the probing signal may cause risks or undesired consequences. We employ a market based approach to solve energy management problems for signal detection…
Electricity prices and the end user net load vary with time. Electricity consumers equipped with energy storage devices can perform energy arbitrage, i.e., buy when energy is cheap or when there is a deficit of energy, and sell it when it…
Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…
This work studies the dynamic risk management of the risk-neutral value of the potential credit losses on a portfolio of derivatives. Sensitivities-based hedging of such liability is sub-optimal because of bid-ask costs, pricing models…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio…
We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on…