Related papers: Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional …
We study the variability of a risk from the statistical viewpoint of multimodality of the conditional loss distribution given that the aggregate loss equals an exogenously provided capital. This conditional distribution serves as a building…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
Statistical analysis of extremes can be used to predict the probability of future extreme events, such as large rainfalls or devastating windstorms. The quality of these forecasts can be measured through scoring rules. Locally scale…
Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…
Systemic risk measures play a crucial role in analyzing individual losses conditional on extreme system-wide disasters. In this paper, we provide a unified asymptotic treatment for systemic risk measures. First, we classify them into two…
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…
This paper investigates an optimal investment problem under the tail Value at Risk (tail VaR, also known as expected shortfall, conditional VaR, average VaR) and portfolio insurance constraints confronted by a defined-contribution pension…
We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…
Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…
We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…
This paper introduces an intermediary between conditional expectation and conditional sublinear expectation, called R-conditioning. The R-conditioning of a random-vector in $L^2$ is defined as the best $L^2$-estimate, given a…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…
This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…