Related papers: Tropical Cyclones as a Critical Phenomenon
The ocean thermohaline circulation, also called meridional overturning circulation, is caused by water density contrasts. This circulation has large capacity of carrying heat around the globe and it thus affects the energy budget and…
A reliable understanding of the Earth system is essential for the life quality of modern society. Natural hazards are the cause of most life and resource losses. The ability to define the conditions for a sustainable development of…
Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average…
Solar flares stem from the reconnection of twisted magnetic field lines in the solar photosphere. The energy and waiting time distributions of these events follow complex patterns that have been carefully considered in the past and that…
A new model ecosystem consisting of many interacting species is introduced. The species are connected through a random matrix with a given connectivity. It is shown that the system is organized close to a boundary of marginal stability in…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
Small-scale oceanic motions, in combination with bottom topography, induce mean large-scale along-isobaths flows. The direction of these mean flows is usually found to be anticyclonic (cyclonic) over bumps (depressions). Here we employ a…
It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient…
Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…
Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are counted among the most destructive phenomena that can be found in nature. Every year, globally an average of 90 TCs occur over tropical waters, and global warming is making them stronger, larger and more…
The size of tropical cyclone (TC) embryos is an essential predictor of TC genesis. Recent studies have identified cold pools and planetary rotation as factors that increase and decrease TC embryo size. While the planetary rotation effect…
Ecological communities exhibit pervasive patterns and inter-relationships between size, abundance, and the availability of resources. We use scaling ideas to develop a unified, model-independent framework for understanding the distribution…
Recent observations suggest that many planetary-mass objects may be present in the outer solar system between the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud. Gravitational perturbations may occasionally bring them into the inner solar system. Their…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…
We introduce a criterion for the existence of regular states in systems with a mixed phase space. If this condition is not fulfilled chaotic eigenstates substantially extend into a regular island. Wave packets started in the chaotic sea…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
This paper introduces a probabilistic framework to quantify community vulnerability towards power losses due to extreme weather events. To analyze the impact of weather events on the power grid, the wind fields of historical hurricanes from…
By using the maximum entropy principle with Tsallis entropy and under the assumption that the gouge plays an active role in the triggering of earthquakes, we obtain a functional dependence for energy distribution function for earthquakes…