Related papers: Tropical Cyclones as a Critical Phenomenon
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
The proposition that the tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the warm pool, the area enclosed by the 26C SST isotherm, is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of…
The near universal references to the above paper by most of the major US media outlets and blogs since Katrina and Rita made US landfall requires a response from a few of us who study hurricanes. Having been involved with hurricane research…
Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…
It is well known that rapid changes in tropical cyclone motion occur during interaction with extratropical waves. While the translation speed has received much attention in the published literature, acceleration has not. Using a large data…
Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. Despite the small fraction of cyclones, some of the most devastating cyclones have formed in this basin, causing extensive damage to the life and property in…
In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme…
Invariance properties of a physical system govern its behavior: energy conservation in turbulence drives a wide distribution of energy among modes, as observed in geophysics, astrophysics and engineering. In hydrodynamic turbulence, the…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Inland tropical cyclone (TC) impacts due to high winds and rainfall-induced flooding depend strongly on the evolution of the wind field and precipitation distribution after landfall. However, research has yet to test the detailed response…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how…
By using the maximum entropy principle, with Tsallis entropy, we obtain an explicit dependence for energy distribution of earthquakes. This function describes very well the observations in a wide range of energies, where other distribution…
One of the serious threats related to climate change is an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. A prominent example are hurricanes, which result from rising coastal temperatures. Such extreme weather events can…
Water level measurements from 15 tide gauges in the coastal zone of Bangladesh are analyzed in conjunction with cyclone tracks and wind speed data for 54 cyclones between 1977 and 2010. Storm surge magnitude is inferred from residual water…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
Rapid intensification (RI) is likely the most crucial contributor to the development of strong tropical cyclones and the largest source of prediction error resulting in great threats to life and property, which can become more threatening…